France’s “Brexit Moment” — And Michel Barnier Is Just One Reason Why

-OpEd-

PARIS — Much was said about the chaos wreaked across the Channel by the UK’s decision in June 2016 to leave the European Union. We watched the British quarrel, sometimes even seeming to delight in it. We also accused them of not knowing what they wanted in the negotiations with Europe that followed.

French people couldn’t imagine at the time that our own country could experience the pain and tribulations of such disorder and one day have, in its own way, our “Brexit moment.”

Of course, the issue here isn’t about leaving Europe. The Euroskeptic or nationalist voices that were still heard a few years ago have now fallen silent. But the parallel is striking between post-June 2024 France and post-June 2016 UK.

Divided in two, or three

Both disasters were initiated by a gamble from a leader who naively hoped to clarify the political game, or even strengthen his camp. This was Macron’s calculation when he decided to dissolve the National Assembly one day after the disastrous result of the European elections. This was David Cameron’s dangerous gamble when he announced in February 2016 the organization of a referendum on leaving the EU.

The result is the same: no clarification but a pure deadlock, with the country emerging deeply divided. In two tranches for the post-Brexit UK, with Remainers and Brexiters opposing each other with the same level of inflexibility.

In today, France, voters instead are divided In three factions: for the far-right party National Rally, the leftist coalition New Popular Front and the centrist presidential camp. Confronting each other with similar vigor, people are divided inside work places, within families or groups of friends — just like in the UK at the time.

It took the British eight years to come to terms with Brexit.

It’s now ironic that the head of state chose Michel Barnier as Prime Minister, the man who negotiated the terms of Brexit with the British.

Power to defuse?

Who’s better positioned than Barnier to defuse such an explosive situation? Time will tell whether that experience will be useful to him now in his native France.

Let’s remember that it took the British eight years to come to terms with Brexit. It was only with the Labour Party coming to power in July that the country’s tone changed with Europe. The UK has adopted a more open position on issues where the interests of London and Brussels converge, without disavowing the decision to leave the EU.

Let us hope that France will take less time to find compromises to emerge stronger from a situation which, like Brexit for the UK, is now only weakening our country.