-Analysis-
PARIS — If it were just Zohran Mamdani’s win in New York City, Donald Trump could easily dismiss the Democratic success as irrelevant — New York is so unrepresentative of America that it’s often its antithesis.
But Tuesday’s results went far beyond that: multiple elections took place, and every single one ended in a Democratic victory. In some cases, such as in New Jersey, the outcome even reversed the results of the presidential election held exactly one year ago.
So what can we learn from this? Three lessons stand out, each of which will weigh heavily on the remainder of Trump’s term.
First, the president overestimates his personal influence. He chose to get directly involved in the New York campaign, and he lost. As usual, he resorted to insults against his opponents, but to no effect.
Trump labeled Mamdani a “communist,” long considered the ultimate political insult in the United States, yet the attack failed to resonate. He also tried to stoke fears of Islam, calling Jewish New Yorkers who voted for Mamdani “stupid.”
The effort fell flat, particularly since the most prominent story about anti-Semitism in the news was the interview between Hitler-admiring influencer Nick Fuentes and podcaster Tucker Carlson — both part of Trump’s MAGA (Make America Great Again) orbit.
Second, Trump may repeat ad nauseam that America is living through a golden age, but that’s not how most Americans feel. Persistent inflation, the inconsistencies of the ongoing trade war, and the lack of tangible progress in reindustrialization have all caused widespread frustration.
The economy, stupid
Trump seems to have forgotten the No. 1 rule of U.S. politics: the economy always drives voter behavior. As Bill Clinton’s famous campaign slogan put it, “It’s the economy, stupid.” Mamdani made his mark by proposing a cap on New York’s exorbitant rents — addressing a real economic pain point — while his personality and optimism did the rest.
With Trump’s impulsive temperament, there’s a real risk he will push even further toward authoritarianism.
Trump still has a year to prevent next year’s midterm elections from becoming a repeat of this week’s Democratic resurgence, clearly fueled by the disappointment of voters who supported him not for his ideology, but because they believed he would improve their lives.
Warning signs
Finally, the third lesson concerns Trump’s reaction to defeat. Any other president would study the warning signs, adjust course, and attempt to right wrongs after an early rebuke from voters. But with Trump’s impulsive temperament, there’s a real risk he will double down instead — pushing even further toward authoritarianism.
For more than nine months, Trump has been eroding the checks and balances that form the backbone of American democracy, centralizing power to an unprecedented degree. He could now go even further, especially as the American justice system begins to question his style of governance.
Many Americans fear that the next step could be his invocation of 19th-century laws to grant himself full powers, expand military deployment beyond what’s already in place, and bring judges and the press to heel. Paranoia? Maybe. But Trump has never been one to accept defeat—and Tuesday’s results clearly had the makings of one.