Inside Ukraine’s Last-Ditch Attempt To Avoid The Worst From Trump

-Analysis-

PARIS – The foreign ministers of six European countries, along with Ukraine’s top diplomat, were gathered in Paris on Wednesday night when Donald Trump’s announcement dropped — his call with Vladimir Putin and the prospect of future negotiations. I was told their faces showed nothing but anger.

And for good reason. The U.S. president didn’t give anyone a heads-up — not the Ukrainians, who had the most at stake and only found out when Trump called Volodymyr Zelensky after his conversation with Putin; and certainly not the Europeans, who were completely sidelined.

Trump acted with an imperial mindset — it’s in his nature, and as we’re beginning to see, and will likely be the defining style of his second term.

But once the initial shock wore off, it was time to break things down.

For the Ukrainians, there’s a “pros” column and a “cons” column — unfortunately, the latter is much longer. On the bright side, the worst-case scenario didn’t unfold: a secret negotiation leading to a take-it-or-leave-it peace deal. Instead, Trump suggested to Zelensky the creation of “working groups” to draft the plan for negotiation.

The Ukrainian president is set to discuss this over the weekend when he meets U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance in Munich. Officially, there’s no finalized plan yet — and for Ukraine, that’s at least one piece of good news.

Trump’s and Putin’s plan for Ukraine

In the “cons” column, as expected, Trump wants to discuss Ukraine directly with Putin — man-to-man, or rather, strongman-to-strongman. Though, given their history of meetings, it’s not exactly a dynamic that has played out in the American’s favor.

Trump is calling for a quick deal to gain political capital and then wash his hands of Ukraine

Even if there are consultations before the summit Trump wants to hold in Saudi Arabia — a country friendly to both presidents — this one-on-one meeting raises serious concerns. The worst-case scenario? A peace deal with no real security guarantees for Ukraine once the fighting stops, leaving Russia free to strike again whenever it sees an opportunity, using any excuse it finds convenient.

Trump is calling for a quick deal to gain political capital and then wash his hands of Ukraine — and even Europe. His Defense Secretary Peter Hagseth sealed it: Europe is no longer a “priority.”

Zelensky’s plan

What can Ukraine do? Zelensky is in it to win it, counting on cracks in Washington between skeptics of Ukraine and those who recall the Republican Party’s history. He made his displeasure known by refusing to sign an agreement, presented in Kyiv by the U.S. Treasury Secretary, on Ukraine’s rare earth minerals. He won’t sign it unless it includes security guarantees for Ukraine — something the current proposal lacks.

And he’s playing the European card, calling for Europe to be involved in the negotiations as a guarantee that security assurances won’t be overlooked. Europe has taken a hit, and it bears some responsibility for not having built the “powerful Europe” it talks about but never delivers. Still, European can still take the necessary steps to assert themselves — though, one might say, it’s now or never.

So the moment of truth is upon us, both for Ukraine and for part of the international order that Donald Trump aims to build, based solely on American power. Europeans, threatened to be reduced to vassal status, now face a real moment of truth.