Zelensky’s Bet On Kursk: “Asymmetric” Warfare To Convince Trump

-Analysis-

TURIN — Until last August, the few Westerners who’d ever heard of Kursk associated its name with a famous battle from World War II. Now, it has become synonymous with Volodymyr Zelensky’s strategy of asymmetric warfare, the wild card he is ready to play when everything seems to be going against Ukraine.

Now whenever we hear “Kursk,” the city and region in western Russia, it tends to accompany and even replace the geographic names coming from the frontline reports inside Ukraine — those towns that Russian troops have been reducing to rubble in their slow but relentless advance in the eastern Donbas region.

Kursk is also becoming synonymous with a nightmare for Vladimir Putin, a dynamic that the Kremlin prefers not to talk about, a flaw in the apparently invulnerable Russian shield. Now, over the past 24 hours, Zelensky’s forces have broken through for the second time. And it comes just as the negotiation (or rather, the pre-negotiation on the possible deal the new American administration would like to launch to halt Russia’s war against Ukraine) is about to enter its decisive phase.

It appears to be a perfectly calculated move to put Putin in difficulty, and for Zelensky to convince Donald Trump to bet on Kyiv.

New plot twist

The new sortie into Russian territory, in the Kursk region, has the same motivations as the first, five months ago. From a military point of view, it is about distracting the Russian advance in Donbas, diverting their troops to defend their territory, thus easing the pressure on Kyiv’s increasingly under-manned army.

The new Kursk thrust can again transform the image of the Ukrainians.

From a political point of view, as much as the Kremlin tries to minimize the problems of Kursk, bringing the war into Russian territory creates major problems for the regime. But the most strategic strength of this counteroffensive into Russian territory is that of image. Zelensky may be criticized for his mistakes in the military and human management of the Ukrainian resistance, but he remains the best scriptwriter on the market, and he prepares the plot twists in total secrecy to maximize the public impact, both at home and abroad.

Now, two weeks ahead of Trump’s return to the White House, the new Kursk thrust can again transform the image of the Ukrainians — as in August — from that of beggars engaged in the heroic yet futile defense, into a narrative of skilled warriors who make good use of the military aid sent by the West.

Strong and unpredictable

At the same time, the assault defies the perception of the Russians as a crude but brutally unshakeable war machine, showing their defenses can be easily pierced through. Indeed, the panic and anger we see on Telegram of Russian propagandists confirms the regime’s bewilderment.

Like Putin, Trump likes winners.

Obviously, the exchange of territories — Kursk vs. Donbas — hypothesized by many pro-Ukraine commentators is hardly feasible, also because in the meantime, the Ukrainians have lost half of the area occupied since August. But the media impact could be much more incisive than the handful of kilometers conquered by Kyiv’s forces.

Only a few days ago, Zelensky said he trusted in a “strong and unpredictable” Trump, appreciating the very feature that many find the most worrying about the American president. Like Putin, Trump likes winners, and it is easier to arouse his contempt than his compassion. A Ukraine that the incoming U.S. president would want to help must show its claws, and betting its limited resources on Kursk may have been a risk worth taking.