-Analysis-
PARIS — Behind the somber anniversary of the war in Ukraine and the specter of Donald Trump‘s possible election, hanging over the Western summit held Monday night in Paris and the risk of escalation, a hidden question is posed before us: What is the real state of Europe’s relations with Vladimir Putin’s Russia? Are we at war without knowing it?
When French President Emmanuel Macron welcomed the 20 or so heads of state and government to this impromptu summit Monday at the Élysée Palace, he declared: “We do not wish to go to war with the Russian people; we are determined to keep control of the escalation.”
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Then, at the end of the evening, Macron said out loud for the first time that he no longer ruled out sending Western troops on the ground to support Ukraine.
You will have noticed the nuance between “a war with the Russian people”, and with Putin’s regime, which is not named. We’re a long way from the first year of the conflict when the French president was gentle with Vladimir Putin and didn’t want to “humiliate Russia.” Times have truly changed.
Defining war
Why this martial tone? It is in line with the warnings against the Russian threat heard for several weeks in various European countries, particularly those on the eastern flank, closer to the conflict zone. To answer this question, we need to define war.
The concept of “hybrid warfare” must be introduced, as this is undoubtedly what best characterizes the situation. It’s an ill-defined concept that describes the use, alongside or leading up to conventional warfare, of such tactics as cyberwarfare, disinformation, and influence. The public does not quite perceive it as war, per se, but it’s an integral part of it.
French intelligence services have recorded a record number of hostile acts on Russia’s part, ranging from cyberattacks on critical infrastructures in France, to disinformation operations such as the Jewish stars painted on the capital’s walls after October 7, which Paris now officially attributes to the FSB, the successor to the KGB.
How far should we go?
There are also aggressive maneuvers against the French army, in the Black Sea or off French ports; and manipulation campaigns on social networks. That’s a lot.
European resistance
The French and European response is twofold: both in terms of increased support for Ukraine and Monday night’s reaffirmation by Emmanuel Macron that “Russia cannot and must not win its war with Ukraine.”
This was the aim of the Paris meeting, at a time when the West is struggling to provide support for Ukraine. How far should we go? The French president declared that there was no consensus on sending Western troops to Ukraine, but “nothing is excluded,” he said for the first time, choosing to remain in what he called “strategic ambiguity.”
The other answer is to be aware of this Russian threat today and, above all, tomorrow. Vladimir Putin can look forward to unraveling the transatlantic bond in the event of Donald Trump’s victory in November; he’s betting on a weakening of European resistance. Here again, Europe is currently far from prepared for this scenario.
There is a risk that some will interpret Macron’s sudden hard line as just political posturing. Yet to ignore what is happening on the continent is to take a major risk for Europe’s collective security, which is exactly what Vladimir Putin is betting on.
