What The U.S.-Ukraine Accord In Saudi Arabia Doesn’t Include

-Analysis-

PARIS — There’s a not-so-small victory — and one huge question mark.

In the Washington-Kyiv accord reached Tuesday, the victory for Ukraine is the restoration of U.S. military aid and intelligence sharing, which had been suspended 10 days ago after the Oval Office clash between Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky. This was crucial not only from a military standpoint but also for the morale of Ukrainians, who had been forced to fight at a disadvantage.

The big question mark is everything else. The meeting in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia between the close aides of Volodymyr Zelensky and their two American counterparts — Secretary of State Marco Rubio and National Security Advisor Mike Waltz — leaves no shortage of uncertainties.

First, there’s the matter of optics. Rubio and Waltz are what one might call “mainstream” Republicans — aligned with Trump but not part of his most extreme faction. During the humiliating White House showdown, it was Vice President JD Vance who took the lead, while Rubio stood beside him, eyes downcast awkwardly.

So, was this a classic good cop/bad cop routine, like in police movies? Or does it reflect deeper ideological divisions within Trump’s camp? In Jeddah, at least, Rubio and Waltz acted like responsible statesmen.

Ukraine declared its readiness for a 30-day ceasefire — as soon as Russia agrees to it. But a day after the announcement, Moscow has still yet to respond.

Demilitarization demands

The timing is unusual, as the past three weeks have been particularly tough for Ukraine, leaving it feeling abandoned by its American ally. Washington has already granted the concessions Moscow demanded — recognizing the loss of occupied territories and ruling out Ukraine’s NATO membership — while Russia has remained silent, simply reaping the benefits.

Ukrainians and Europeans will see just how far Trump is willing to go in his leniency toward Putin.

But this unconditional ceasefire, still hypothetical, could pave the way for an unprecedented process. That’s where things could take a dangerous turn. It’s also where Ukrainians and Europeans will see just how far Trump is willing to go in his leniency toward Vladimir Putin. This is the question that overshadows all others.

The biggest risk for Ukraine is falling into a trap. European military leaders, who gathered Tuesday in Paris are determined to prevent the U.S. from agreeing to Russia’s demand for Ukraine’s demilitarization. Such a move would be a disaster — an unarmed Ukraine would be entirely at Putin’s mercy.

The mineral question

Today, Ukraine has a well-trained army of one million soldiers, which forms the first line of defense against Russia, with Europeans in the second line. But if Trump, when he meets with Putin, agrees to the demilitarization and the lack of significant security guarantees, he will have, in effect, contributed to Ukraine’s capitulation.

Negotiating with Trump requires some serious acrobatics.

We’re not there yet, especially since in Jeddah, Ukrainians and Americans also discussed the agreement on Ukrainian minerals. And there’s nothing like a good contract worth several tens of billions of dollars to grab Donald Trump’s attention.

If the scenario of these negotiations had been written in advance, it wouldn’t have been considered credible, given how improbable the storyline all seems. Negotiating with Trump requires some serious acrobatics, with occasional pleasant surprises. But the story, and the questions, are from from over.