–Analysis-
KYIV — As we approach the two-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a narrative is coalescing that the war has reached a stalemate.
Ukraine’s counteroffensive last year failed and the perception of an indefinite but static conflict is causing a sense of fatigue in Western capitals, especially as the growing conflict in the Middle East overshadows Ukraine’s fight for independence and sovereignty.
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On Jan. 23, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told a meeting of some 50 nations that the U.S., Ukraine’s largest supplier of aid, had no more money left to give and was unable to send the ammunition and missiles that the government in Kyiv needs to fend off Russia’s invasion. While waiting for Congress to approve more money for Ukraine’s defense, Washington will look to allies to maintain support.
Despite the setbacks, the perception of stalemate is deeply flawed. Both Moscow and Kyiv are in a race to rebuild offensive combat power and as the war enters its third year, the winner will be decided on the battlefield.
Key conflict zones
As it stands, there are three significant conflict zones: Synkivka in Kharkiv, Avdiyivka and Novomykhailivka, both in Donetsk. The section between Robotyne and Verbove in the Zaporizhzhia oblast is also tense, where the enemy, utilizing two amphibious assault divisions, has been persistently attempting to take a strategically important area that Ukrainian forces acquired last summer. Despite facing challenges, Ukrainian defense forces have managed to hold approximately two kilometers along the enemy’s defensive line, albeit with some setbacks.
In Krynyk on the left bank of the Kherson region, Ukrainian marines are engaged in tense battles with the 70th Russian division. The Russian forces, supported by the 70th motorized rifle regiment, are attempting to retake Krynyk. However, these efforts have been met with difficulties and significant losses, indicating potential shortcomings in the enemy’s resources and combat vehicle availability for further attacks. Challenges persist on the Ukrainian side as well, with the frozen Dnipro and straits complicating logistics for transportation and evacuation.
Despite the complexities, consolidating strategic points remains crucial for Ukrainian forces to best counter the enemy’s threats to towns and villages on the right bank. Successful actions, such as downing enemy bombers and an A-50 radar detection aircraft, have helped ease the situation for defenders and civilians on the right bank.
Synkivka: the key to Kupyansk
Russia is actively attempting to advance in the eastern bank of the Oskil River, with ongoing battles on the outskirts of Synkivka where Russia’s 25th brigade is making persistent efforts to infiltrate the Kharkiv region. Recent developments indicate incremental progress for Russia, having regained 200 meters in the northeastern outskirts of the village that were lost the week before last. Additional points of contention include Kislivka and Petropavlivka, where fierce clashes are occurring over forested areas.
Ukrainian defense forces demonstrate their capability to maintain control of strategic positions
The enemy is also moving toward Kupyansk along specific roads, while simultaneously planning to reach Oskil on the section from Dvorichna to Synkivka. Russia’s 15th motorized rifle and 26th tank regiments are operating in Yagidne-Ivanivka and Yagidne-Kislivka directions. The 27th brigade is attempting to bypass Stelmakhivka from the north to support these efforts.
The current situation has prompted questions regarding the effectiveness of command structures and coordination, as well as the role and deployment strategy of reinforcements. Despite facing these challenges, Ukrainian defense forces demonstrate their capability to maintain control of strategic positions east of Synkivka, effectively thwarting substantial enemy advancements to the west.
Despite Ukrainian Defense Forces holding key positions east of Synkivka, the Russians are persistent.
Avdiivka: hell
The army’s objective to capture Avdiivka by March 1, or at the latest, by March 10, has resulted in strained forces and resources due to fluctuating ground conditions and unsuitable flying weather. Russia aims to encircle the garrison in Avdiivka, attempting breakthroughs from the north via Stepovy to Orlivka and from the south via Vodyanyi to Severny and Tonenka. Despite increased assault intensity each week, Ukraine’s forces stand firm, successfully pushing the enemy back in Stepovy.
The 114th Donetsk brigade recently altered its approach, attempting to bypass Koksochim from Veseli and Kamianka. Navigation errors led to a divided force, allowing the “Tavria” group (an operational-strategic group, which is a formation of the Ukrainian Ground Forces) to exploit the situation.
Defense Forces have held positions near the sand pit, hindering the left flank of the 114th brigade. Battles in other sectors of the Avdiivka Defense District include small enemy infantry groups making slight advances in the residential sector in Avdiivka’s eastern part. The situation remains tense and brutal, and with each day, the Ukrainian military must fight for every inch. Avdiivka is an especially critical area.
Assaults in Novomykhailivka
Russia is advancing towards the Maryinka-Vugledar highway, posing a challenge for the “Tavria” forces that are currently holding back the advancement but unable to fully stop it. The Russians are intending to move along the highway, aiming to encircle Ukraine’s 72nd Brigade at the Vugledar bridgehead and eliminate this strategic position.
Russia’s actions indicate a lack of commitment to a specific method, whether it’s surrounding the bridgehead or launching frontal attacks.
The Russian command is also regrouping forces in the Maryinka area, with different units operating in various directions, and the Defense Forces are putting up a determined defense to thwart the enemy’s advances in Novomykhailivka, Kostiantynivka, and other areas in Donetsk. The Russians may well concentrate efforts north of Novomykhailivka and attempt to attack Antonivka and Kostyantynivka, pinning down the Defense Forces in Novomykhailivka with frontal assaults.
Western aid
While the situation is tense in various directions, the Defense Forces continue to fight hard, and the Ukrainian military maintains a defensive stance. The complexity of the operational environment requires strategic patience and careful consideration of offensive capabilities to minimize any negative outcomes. The enemy’s initiative in determining the location and scale of operations underscores the challenges faced by the Ukrainian forces in this highly fluid conflict.
Ukraine could deplete its stocks, hindering its ability to launch long-range strikes
U.S. President Joe Biden, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, and Director of National Intelligence Avril Gaines held a meeting with U.S. lawmakers on Jan. 17, stressing the urgency of supporting Ukraine with additional security assistance. They highlighted air defense systems and artillery ammunition as critical needs, emphasizing that without such aid, Ukraine could deplete its stocks, hindering its ability to launch long-range strikes on occupied Crimea and Russia’s Black Sea fleet.
It is crucial to avoid any pause in supplies, as it could allow Russia to accumulate weapons. Unfortunately, intelligence estimates from Western analysts suggest the war’s duration could extend for at least another two years, with more pessimistic projections anticipating up to five years of conflict.
