-Analysis-
A peace conference will be held in Switzerland in June to discuss the situation in Ukraine. Approximately 100 states have planned to take part with the aim of bringing Russia and Ukraine to the negotiating table. The problem, however, is that neither Ukraine nor Russia is ready for true negotiations.
Volodymyr Zelensky first proposed the initiative to hold a “global summit,” and Swiss President Viola Amherd declared her readiness to host the conference at the request of the Ukrainian president back in January.
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The Swiss government outlined certain details of the conference on April 10: from June 15 to 16, participants will gather in the Bürgenstock Resort near Lucerne. The organizers have been negotiating with potential participants for three months, and according to Swiss Foreign Minister Ignazio Cassis, more than 100 countries will receive invitations.
Earlier this month, Zelensky said he expected 80 to 100 states to participate. U.S. President Joe Biden may also attend the summit, according to the Swiss newspaper Neue Zürcher Zeitung, although that has not yet been officially announced.
According to Zelensky, the discussions will be based on his 10-point “peace formula,” which he outlined at the end of 2022. The main principles are the withdrawal of Russian troops and the cessation of hostilities; the restoration of the territorial integrity of Ukraine; the release of all prisoners of war; and the return of deportees. Zelensky expects that those who participate in the Switzerland summit in will prepare a peace plan based on his “formula,” and then “some parties to the negotiations” will hand it over to Russia.
The conference will show how Zelensky and his government’s “peace formula” managed to secure broad support outside the European Union and NATO, said Jamie Shea, former NATO Deputy Assistant Secretary General for Emerging Security Challenges and expert at the Friends of Europe and Chatham House think tanks.
Russia’s involvement
There will assuredly not be a Russian delegation at the June summit; the organizers did not invite Russians. In any case, Maria Zakharova, the director of the information and press department of Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, stated back in March that even if they had been invited, Russia would not send a delegation in Switzerland.
This is because Russia does not accept Zelensky’s peace formula. When discussing possible negotiations, Russian President Vladimir Putin always emphasizes the need to consider “the realities that have developed on the ground.” Essentially, this means that Russia wants to retain the territories occupied after the start of the full-scale invasion (especially those occupied in 2014) — all of which are already formally included as a part of Russia.
However, when announcing the date of the conference this month, Swiss authorities stressed that Russia must participate in future negotiations. The task is to create “a concrete roadmap for Russia’s participation in the peace process.” “It should be clear from the very beginning that sooner or later Russia must be [in the negotiations],” Cassis said.
Russia is not interested in negotiations and brokering peace, as it is preparing a new offensive.
The conference organizers understand that Russia will reject a peace plan compiled without its participation, so they must find a way to include Moscow in the negotiations, Shea said. So far, Russia’s participation can only be discussed theoretically, but even statements about it create a strong pressure; it will now be more difficult for the Kremlin to call this plan Western anti-Russian propaganda. At the same time, Russia is not currently interested in negotiations and brokering peace, as it is preparing a new offensive at the front to seize even more territory, Shea said.
If Russia joins the talks, Moscow must not be allowed to use them to spread propaganda, said a former Polish diplomat who requested anonymity. “The negotiations must be ‘technical’ and take place behind closed doors,” he said, adding that under no circumstances should they include delegations from the “Donetsk People’s Republic” or “Luhansk People’s Republic” (regions illegally annexed by Russia). He believes that both Ukraine and Russia must participate in the negotiations, as it will not be possible to resolve the conflict by military means.
A diplomatic impasse?
Zelensky has repeated that negotiations are possible only after the withdrawal of Russian troops from the occupied territories. And on September 30 2022, he signed a decree stating the impossibility of negotiations it the Russian president. Putin has since been re-elected, extending his presidency until at least 2030.
Zelensky is regularly asked about negotiations with Russia and specifically with Putin. “We will create a platform for him to agree that he has lost this war and that it was a big mistake,” the Ukrainian president said in February 2024. This week, Zelensky said that Putin does not want negotiations now, but rather victory over Ukraine: “For him, victory means the destruction of Ukraine. And so how do you want us to talk to a person who wants to kill us? Just kill. He says: ‘Either you are part of Russia, or we will destroy you all.'”
Ukraine does not trust the Kremlin by any means, so it is keeping firmly to the program: a return to the borders of 1991, said Konstantin Skorkin, researcher of Ukrainian politics and journalist. “Taking into account all of Ukraine’s internal problems – corruption, the unpopular draft, the consequences of the dismissal of Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zaluzhny – Zelensky is not yet ready to become a leader who will relinquish territory or try to find a common language with the Kremlin,” Skorkin said.
From Putin’s point of view, the Swiss meeting is a ‘panopticon.
Skorkin considers the current situation a diplomatic impasse: “In the West there are many who wish to seat Ukraine and Russia at the negotiating table, but this now seems impossible. In some ways, this reminds me of the era of the Minsk agreements. Yet at time, there was an unworkable treaty. Now, we cannot even reach negotiations.”
Productive negotiations with Putin are now difficult to imagine. Any goodwill on his part is absent, agrees a Russian international relations expert who asked for anonymity. “From Putin’s point of view, the Swiss meeting is a ‘panopticon.” And it is impossible to develop communication devices with a person who does not communicate.
Last Friday, Putin hinted at his readiness to return to the Istanbul format, but what exactly he meant by that was. Based on previous experience, it is clear that Ukraine will not work with that format,” Sorkin said.
China’s balancing act
Organizers of the Swiss summit are separately discussing the importance of inviting counties of the so-called “global South”, such as India, South Africa and Brazil. China is on the top of that list. In March, the country’s ambassador to Switzerland said Beijing would consider the possibility of participating in the conference, but it is still unclear whether the Chinese will come to Bürgenstock.
In mid-April, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who was in Beijing on an official visit, tried to persuade Chinese President Xi Jinping at attend the summit. After meeting with Xi, Scholz wrote that they had agreed to “support” the conference in Switzerland. At the same time, Xi said that both Ukraine and Russia should recognize attempts to find peaceful solutions. Based on this statement, Reuters News Agency concludes that Xi has distanced himself from the summit.
“China is walking on thin ice.”
China is trying to figure out independently whether negotiations between Russia and Ukraine are possible. In recent months, Chinese diplomats have spoken with senior officials from both countries on this topic, The Wall Street Journal has reported. However, the West is skeptical: Chinese diplomats do not occupy high positions, and it is unclear whether they are acting on Xi’s instructions.
A Kremlin source said that Chinese authorities are slowing construction of the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline to put pressure on Putin if necessary. “China is walking on thin ice;” on the one hand, Beijing supplies Russia with dual-use goods that can be applied to weapons production, but on the other hand, it has still not provided Russia with military help.
Last February, China introduced its own plan to settle the conflict in Ukraine. It includes clauses on the cessation of military operations, the resumption of peace negotiations, and the respect for the sovereignty of states. But nothing is said about the withdrawal of Russian troops from the territory of Ukraine.
