-Analysis-
PARIS — The world has followed three days of indirect negotiations in Riyadh, mediated by the United States, between Russian and Ukrainian delegations. Is Ukraine any closer to the end of the war? In the thick fog of these unusual talks, it’s impossible to give a definitive answer.
At first glance, it seemed like progress had been made — only to find out that it’s not quite the case. Take Tuesday’s announcement of a ceasefire in the Black Sea, along with a halt to attacks on energy infrastructure — it comes with conditions set by Moscow before the agreement can take effect.
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And these conditions are particularly significant, as Russia is demanding the lifting of certain Western sanctions imposed after its invasion of Ukraine — specifically, the reinstatement of Russian banks in the international payment system. Yet that would require the approval of Europe.
Russia drives up the price
In just two weeks, the situation has shifted from Ukraine accepting an unconditional 30-day ceasefire to partial halts in hostilities tied to specific conditions. This is far from the much-hyped “Deal” touted by Donald Trump. Instead, it’s shaping up to be a highly tactical negotiation — one that’s likely to drag on longer than expected, with all the bluff and maneuvering of a high-stakes poker game.
In a game of poker, nobody tells the truth.
In a game of poker, nobody tells the truth — it’s not just about the cards you’re holding, but the psychology behind every move that determines the outcome. At this stage, negotiations over Ukraine are beginning to look a lot like this high-stakes game of bluffing.
Ukraine agreed to an unconditional ceasefire to reopen dialogue with Washington, fully aware that Russia wouldn’t follow suit. Meanwhile, Russia feels emboldened, recognizing that the Trump administration is desperate for a deal — and it’s driving up the price.
U.S. concessions
As for the United States, they are the only ones not lying. They are making multiple concessions to Russia in hopes of achieving a diplomatic success that Trump desperately needs. However, in doing so, they are only fueling Vladimir Putin’s appetite, as evidenced by his unexpected demand to lift financial sanctions before any halt to the fighting.
This doesn’t bode well for a quick agreement, especially since Washington is already dangling deals with Russia far beyond the Ukrainian issue, which, in reality, doesn’t interest them all that much.
Some may criticize me for not seeing the first positive signs after three years of war.
To understand this, one need only listen to the lengthy interview of American envoy Steve Witkoff with pro-Trump podcaster Tucker Carlson a few days ago. With his close ties to the president, Witkoff echoes all of Putin’s talking points — a man he has met and who inspires his trust.
Citing energy projects in the Arctic region or jointly delivery of liquefied natural gas to Europe, Witkoff enthusiastically declared: “Who doesn’t want to have a world where Russia and the United States are doing, collaboratively, good things together?”
Some may criticize me for not seeing the first positive signs after three years of war. But what I see instead is a duplicitous deal in the making. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky arrives in Paris Wednesday night with his allies that remain: the Europeans.
