-OpEd-
Southern Ukraine is still reeling from the explosion at the Nova Kakhovka dam on the Dnipro River. The surrounding Kherson region, where Ukraine retook several key towns and cities last November, is flooding as water levels on both banks of the river rose by 10 meters, forcing thousands of Ukrainians to evacuate.
The catastrophe may lead to the shutting down of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, the nuclear reactors of which are cooled by water from the Dnipro.
With enormous consequences on a human, environmental and strategic levels, Kyiv and Moscow are blaming each other for the explosion. But it is simply unfathomable that Ukraine could be responsible for the attack — both, because it wouldn’t make sense for Ukraine to attack its own people — and because the disaster is a major impediment from Kyiv’s much-anticipated military counteroffensive.
Yes, the bombing of the dam was ordered by Russian President Vladimir Putin to try to slow down his coming military losses. But there is another, deeper explanation for this attack at this moment in time: it’s a clear message to the world that there are no limits to Putin’s aggression. Especially when his back is against the wall.
In the early weeks of the war, the world was faced with the fear that Russia could use nuclear weapons. And in response to Ukraine’s successful military operations, Putin has increasingly used unconventional war methods.
Since the Russian invasion began, we’ve seen the theft of grain exports, war crimes against a maternity hospital, a nuclear power plant taken hostage, civilian homes deliberately targeted and the destruction of whole towns. Unable to achieve its initial objectives of conquering power in Kyiv, Moscow is waging a war of unabashed brutality.
Brutality rising
Undoubtedly, blowing up the dam was a poorly thought-out response to an offensive by Ukrainian troops. The panicked reaction is dangerous and foolish: by blowing up the dam, Russia put its troops and the fortifications they had built on the left bank of the river at risk, and have endangered the water supply to Russian-occupied Crimea and the supply of electricity to other Ukrainian territories they occupy.
“Now no one will have you!”
When the Kremlin talks about a possible nuclear strike on Ukraine, experts reassure us that such a move would hurt Russia as much as Ukraine. But isn’t that exactly what happened at the Kakhovska hydroelectric plant?
It brings to mind a line by the 19th-century Russian playwright Alexander Ostrovsky: as the protagonist shoots his former bride, he says, “Well, now no one will have you!”
Predictions are impossible
Putin’s chances of victory are slim, given the many missteps Russia has taken throughout the war.
Every day, the Russian army proves its fundamental inefficiency, as its commanders make mistake after mistake. Who is there to stop the dictator’s hand from pressing the red button, his last and only opportunity for revenge?
There is no guarantee that the Kremlin will stop a nuclear escalation, whether with a ballistic missile strike or by triggering a nuclear accident at the Zaporizhzhia plant. Just last week, Putin and his lieutenants were again making allusions to so-called “dirty bombs.”
Nothing in this war is impossible. Whatever happens in Ukraine — bad or good — will not be a local event, but will change the world.
The risks of further Russian escalations must be calculated by decision makers in Brussels, Washington and Beijing. This incident shows with dramatic images how real they are. No one, not even the highest-ranking U.S. military official, knows how the war will develop.
Perhaps we can only say with certainty that the Ukrainian military will continue to fight. They have no other choice.
