-Analysis-
PARIS — Let’s not waste time on definitions: This is clearly an escalation. President Emmanuel Macron‘s announcements in a televised interview last night raised the level of France’s engagement in Ukraine a couple of notches. It’s meant to — and the presence of his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelensky, in Normandy for the symbolic D-Day commemorations, gives the whole thing additional solemnity.
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Supplying Ukraine with French Mirage 2000-5 fighter jets, and more importantly, training some 4,500 Ukrainian soldiers — most likey on Ukrainian soil: These gestures come on top of the one made eight days ago, when Paris approved the use of French Scalp missiles to strike military targets located on Russian territory.
We can add to that the supply to Ukraine of French-made AASM bombs, useful to reach long distance targets and which can now be launched by Ukrainian Mig aircrafts — and soon by the French Mirage. There again, Ukraine will be allowed to bomb targets inside Russian territory.
More aid
This acceleration comes as no real surprise. Macron already signaled this on Feb. 26 at a meeting on Ukraine in Paris — timing that was no coincidence.
At the beginning of the year, Ukraine’s allies feared the worst: either a Russian breakthrough or a Ukrainian collapse. That was due to the failure of the Ukrainian offensive last year, the reorganization of the Russian army and defense industry, and, above all, the West’s failure to supply Ukraine with the ammunition it needed. Political uncertainty, in Europe but especially in the United States, did the rest.
Peace will only be achieved if Ukraine can resist.
Today, the situation is considered serious, but not as alarming as it was at the beginning of the year. There’s no more catastrophism, especially because significant financial resources have been mobilized both in Europe and the U.S. to help Kyiv. The United States is also taking some precautions to mitigate the impact of the possible election of Donald Trump.
This context explains the growth in French as well as American, British and and even German support, despite Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s hesitations.
Looking ahead
How will Russia react to this? We’ve been asking this question ever since the first rifle was delivered to Ukraine, following the invasion. Macron has tried to reassure us, refusing to use the word “escalation” and reminding us that Ukraine is a sovereign country with the right to call for help.
France is careful not to go too far on its own.
Nevertheless, the arrest near Paris of a Russo-Ukrainian man suspected of plotting a terrorist attack, and that of a French national in Moscow yesterday, suggest a turbulent period of “hybrid warfare” rather than a direct threat.
France is careful not to go too far on its own. The announcement that French military equipment could be used to strike targets inside Russia was followed by a similar one by U.S. President Joe Biden; and the French Mirage came on top of the Dutch and Danish F-16s that will arrive in Ukraine. Let’s hope that other countries will send trainers to Ukraine, and that this gesture, which seems vertiginous today, will become commonplace tomorrow.
Macron’s stated aim remains the same: “Peace will only be achieved if Ukraine can resist,” he said while announcing the additional aid. The spirit of D-Day landings did the rest.
