-Analysis-
PARIS — In two days’ time, the Russians will be called to the polls, for a presidential election without suspense, with Vladimir Putin set to confirm his hold as the country’s leader for another six years. It is in this particular, highly symbolic context — and Putin loves symbols — that Ukraine has chosen to strike on Russian territory.
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It’s certainly not the first time, and last year a Ukrainian drone was even shot down over the Kremlin in Moscow. But Ukraine needed to show that while it has reverted into defensive mode on the ground, it could also go on the offensive.
The Ukrainian drones that struck nine Russian provinces on Tuesday, included some that arrived hundreds of kilometers from their point of origin. Although Russia announced that it had shot them down, videos filmed by Russians show facilities in flames, including one of Russia’s largest oil refineries, in the Nizhny Novgorod region, 400 kilometers northeast of Moscow.
At the same time, armed Russian dissident soldiers launched a ground attack in the Bolgorod region, bordering Ukraine.
Ukraine at war
The aim is primarily psychological. These attacks are intended to show the Russian government that it is not alone in its ability to strike at critical infrastructures, as it has been doing for the past two years. It is also a response to last week’s missile strike on the port of Odessa when Volodymyr Zelensky was on a visit accompanied by the Greek Prime Minister.
The attacks show Russia that it is at war and that there is a price to pay
These attacks don’t have the same impact as Russian fire, if only because of the size of the country; there are no civilian casualties on the Russian side, unlike those in Odessa in recent days.
But it shows Russia that it is a nation at war — a theme practically absent in Putin’s campaign — and that there is a price to pay.
Ukraine has long been reluctant to strike on Russian territory, not least on the advice of its Western allies, who constantly fear escalation. Still, given the asymmetrical means of the two armies, this reluctance is falling away.
Western weapons
The question of the weapons used by Ukraine against Russia is an important political issue. In principle, Ukraine only uses weapons it produces itself to attack inside Russian territory, in particular drones such as those used on Tuesday.
For the time being, the West is adamant that Western weapons should only be used within the perimeter of internationally-recognized Ukraine, i.e. including the Crimea and Donbas occupied by the Russian army. But not beyond.
Ukraine can congratulate itself on having pulled off a double coup
This is the contract France has signed with Kyiv for the delivery of Scalp missiles with a range of 250 km, capable of striking Russia. The same goes for the UK, with its long-range Storm Shadow missiles. This is a key issue: it is at the heart of the debate in Germany surrounding Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s refusal to supply Kyiv with Taurus missiles, with a range of 500 km.
Beyond these sensitive issues, Ukraine can congratulate itself on having pulled off a double coup: spoiling Vladimir Putin’s pre-election party, and showing its Western allies that it has not said its last word. Russia’s response will undoubtedly be merciless.
