-Analysis-
PARIS — As if there weren’t enough subjects for discord and confrontation with Vladimir Putin’s Russia, a new and possibly severe issue has arisen in Washington. It comes on top of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which is about to enter its third year, and the shocking death of opposition figure Alexei Navalny in prison.
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According to the White House, U.S. intelligence services suspect that Russia is preparing to deploy anti-satellite, and possibly nuclear, weapons in space. This suspicion is considered serious enough for U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken to raise it with his Chinese and Indian counterparts on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference this weekend, urging them to intervene with Moscow.
It’s serious for several reasons: first of all, it’s forbidden by international treaties signed by the U.S. and the USSR, now Russia. Disarmament treaties are falling one after the other, and space was one of the last to remain in force. It’s never a good sign to leave disarmament treaties.
Is a space war to come?
Space has long been a deliberately demilitarized domain, but it is now one of the new fields of conflict. The importance of communication, geolocation, and espionage satellites is such that modern warfare can no longer do without them.
These satellite infrastructures risk becoming under threat. A U.S. futuristic novel, The Phantom Fleet, places the start of the Third World War in space, with the destruction of the GPS satellite network. This is exactly what the U.S. fears today with these anti-satellite weapons in space, nuclear weapons to boot.
Yesterday, the New York Times raised the question of whether the United States was experiencing a new “Sputnik moment”, a reference to the first spacecraft sent into space by the USSR in 1957, which took the U.S. by surprise. The “Sputnik moment” indicates a nasty strategic surprise, a serious challenge to be met.
Republican power
The United States is now engaged in a general showdown with Putin on Ukrainian soil. And their means of retaliating against anything Russia does — whether it’s Navalny’s death or threats in space — should be to increase support for Ukraine in its existential war with Russia.
As we all know, Donald Trump’s elected Republicans are blocking this aid to Ukraine, and the administration is at a loss. The leaks about the threat in space are perhaps not disconnected from an attempt to convince “old-fashioned” Republicans to get their act together.
Nikki Hailey, Donald Trump‘s rival in the race for the Republican nomination, wonders why the former president was so kind to dictators. But Ronald Reagan’s heirs have changed, and Donald Trump’s grip on power is resisting everything for the time being — including, perhaps, a threatening deployment into space.
