Putin Is Gearing Up For A Major Summer Offensive — Here’s How Ukraine Can Defend Itself

–Analysis–

BERLIN — Russian President Vladimir Putin has recently signed a decree to usher in a new wave of conscription this spring. From April 1, men between the ages of 18 and 30 have started to be called up for statutory military service. In July, the Duma, Russia’s lower house, had raised the upper age limit by three years — meaning that men up to the age of 30, and not 27, had to join. In total, 150,000 conscripts will spend a year serving in the army, according to the Kremlin’s website.

The recruits will not be sent to the “new Russian regions”; according to official statements, they will not be involved in the “special military operation”. But we can assume that the new soldiers will be stationed in Russia in order to free up other troops to go to Ukraine.

Yes, Moscow is launching a new wave of mobilization.

The British Ministry of Defense recently reported that Russia was recruiting about 30,000 new soldiers into the army every month, “allowing it to cover losses and continue the war against Ukraine”. The British figures are in line with information from the Ukrainian military intelligence services (HUR), which in January estimated there were 1,000 to 1,100 new Russian recruits a day, enticed by high salaries and attractive benefits.

Kyiv is concerned. They cannot rely on their enemy running out of manpower in the foreseeable future — although huge numbers of Russian soldiers are dying in battle. “More Russian soldiers have likely died to seize Avdiivka than died in the entire Soviet-Afghan war,” according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a U.S. thinktank . The decade-long war in Afghanistan claimed the lives of 25,000 Soviet soldiers.

Focus on Kharkiv

In other sectors of the frontline, the Russian army suffered considerable losses during its winter offensive, and only won a few kilometres of territory in exchange. And since then, the Ukrainian army has put a lot of effort into stabilizing the frontline. But now there is talk of a new major offensive from Russia in the summer. Kyiv recently reported unusual movements by Russian troops. The army is believed to be making concrete preparations for an attack on Kharkiv, the second largest city in Ukraine.

In his recent public appearances, Putin seems to be brimming over with confidence, smiling at reports of Ukraine running short of ammunition. After capturing Avdiivka and a few other villages, the president now seems to think that — after two years of war – he finally has the advantage and can push for a military solution. They still have plenty of armoured vehicles and heavy artillery left over from Soviet-era stocks. And there are plenty of soldiers – if you don’t care how many of them die.

Moscow’s supplies of munitions and drones are also secure. To top it all off, the U.S. aid package for Ukraine, which totals 60 billion dollars, is caught up in U.S. bureaucracy. There are no signs that the Republicans in the House of Representatives will end their blockade any time soon. For the Kremlin, that looks like a good opportunity to finally clear out the “Nazis in Kyiv”.

“The situation is better than it was two or three months ago, when we had a lack of artillery shells and other weapons,” Volodymyr Zelensky said in a recent interview with the U.S. channel CBS. The Ukrainian president said that the army had stood fast against their invaders last winter, but that they expected a new major Russian offensive in late May or June.

Therefore he said that Ukraine needs much more military aid from the West, especially from the U.S. Most urgently, he called for U.S. Patriot missile systems and more artillery. In the interview, Zelensky warned of Russian expansionism, which he said could see them invade other European countries.

Ukraine not so desperate…

“The Ukrainian President is exaggerating the situation a little, in order to secure the necessary aid,” said retired German general Klaus Wittmann in an interview with Welt TV.

The Czechs promised to supply Ukraine with 1.5 million artillery shells, and 700,000 are already on their way

In fact, in the medium term, Ukraine’s situation is not too bad, when you consider the weapons that have recently been supplied and the promises of aid from NATO members. The Czech Republic promised to supply Ukraine with 1.5 million artillery shells, and 700,000 are already on their way to Kyiv.

Czech President Petr Pavel announced that the funding for the second batch was secured in early March, after Norway donated 142.42 million euros to the initiative, allowing them to buy 800,000 artillery shells. These are due to arrive in Ukraine in June. In total, that is around 2 million shells being sent to Ukraine over the next few months.

In addition, Ukraine still has around 70-80% of the Western weapons systems that it has received so far, according to Oryx, a Dutch open-source defence analysis website, which tracks the verified destruction of Ukrainian and Russian arms. Since the start of the year alone, the European Union, Canada, the United Kingdom and the United States have promised support to Ukraine that is worth at least 65 billion euros. The military aid covers armoured vehicles, howitzers, guided missiles, drones, minesweepers and much more.

…but in need of U.S. support

In a few months’ time — as soon as the first Ukrainian pilots have completed their training — Kyiv will receive the first F-16 fighter jets supplied by an international alliance. Kyiv is also recruiting new soldiers. Not 500,000 men — as was originally planned — but a “significantly reduced” number, as Oleksandr Syrskyi, who was appointed commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian army last month, said in an interview with Ukrainian media. Syrskyi said they had made the decision after further analysis of their resources.

Yet, despite the long list of weapons being provided by Europe, Ukraine could find itself running low in the long term if the U.S. doesn’t step in. Especially when it comes to air defence and precision-guided artillery. That is most likely the motivation behind Zelensky’s most recent appeals for aid.

According to Nico Lange, a German security expert, the European Union needs to drastically increase the speed and scale of its support. But, to achieve that, they will need to radically change their approach.

We need to provide swift aid that doesn’t get caught up in bureaucracy

“Even in the third year of the war, Germany and the EU is still treating the defence of Ukraine like it is just one of many concerns,” Lange wrote on X. He asks, with good reason: “Why is there not an EU-Ukraine representative, a Ukraine coordinator, who is responsible for that and actively drives forward support for Ukraine?”

Lange says we need to provide swift aid that doesn’t get caught up in bureaucracy. Everyone should “focus on supporting Ukraine, on defending Europe and deterring Russian imperialism.”

However convinced Putin may be that glorious Russia is crushing supposedly fascist Ukraine, a new major offensive will certainly not be a walk in the park. That became clear late last month, when a total of 36 tanks and 12 armoured personnel carriers tried to break through the Ukrainian lines of defence in Tonenke, to the west of Avdiivka. The attack — the first of this scale that we have seen since October – was a major failure. The Ukrainians destroyed twelve of the Russian tanks and eight of their armoured personnel carriers.

“Ukraine’s ability to defend against [this] assault… is a positive indicator for Ukraine’s ability to defend against future large-scale Russian assaults and the expected summer 2024 Russian offensive operation,” explained the thinktank ISW. Furthermore, it said that an offensive across multiple sectors of the frontline is not very likely. “Russian forces will likely only be able to launch a concerted large-scale offensive operation in one operational direction at a time due to Russia’s own manpower and planning limitations.”

In the meantime, Ukraine is building up its defenses – a process that, according to many experts, should have started months ago. Groups of construction workers are rushing to dig defensive trenches, bunkers, anti-tank defences and minefields along the 1,000-km front. Kyiv is also continuing to send drones into Russia — with attacks on oil refineries, as well as armament factories.