-Analysis-
PARIS — In the avalanche of bad news for Ukraine, including Russia’s recent advances on the Kharkhiv front, there’s one Ukrainian success story that has received little attention. Ukraine has weakened the Russian threat in the Black Sea to such an extent that Ukrainian grain exports by sea have almost returned to pre-invasion levels in February 2022.
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The world was consumed last year by Russia’s attempt to set up a naval blockade in the Black Sea, after withdrawing from an earlier agreement brokered by Turkey. It was feared that this blockade would have an impact on the Ukrainian economy, and on world food supplies, given Ukrainian agriculture’s crucial role in this market.
Nothing of the sort happened.
Black Sea balance of power
Ukraine has succeeded in eliminating a significant number of Russian vessels from its Black Sea fleet, and in forcing the Russian General Staff to move the rest of its fleet away. Strikes on Crimea, naval and aerial drone attacks, and commando operations have all changed the power dynamic of the Black Sea.
According to The New York Times, which had access to the data, more than 27 million tons of grain have been exported from Ukraine by sea in the last six months, the equivalent of the pre-war levels. After only five cargos were able to leave Odessa and the surrounding region last September, by March it had risen to 231 — an undeniable success for Kyiv.
The stakes are high on several levels. Russia’s had two aims in trying to block grain exports: firstly, to weaken the Ukrainian economy, since these exports account for one-third of the country’s gross domestic product, losing those revenues would have been disastrous for a nation already suffering from the war.
Moscow also hoped to create international panic, with shortages and price hikes, and hoped to present itself as the Good Samaritan. African countries invited to a summit in Russia last year were offered free deliveries of grain, some of which had been seized from the Ukrainians.
The Ukrainian army succeeded in thwarting this operation, inflicting significant losses on the Russian fleet.
A fragile success
Experts warn that this success in Black Sea shipments is fragile. Firstly, because the figures for the last few months include some catching up on last year’s sluggish exports; but also because the next harvest is likely to be smaller, not least because of the disruptions caused by the war.
Russia is seeking to take advantage of Ukraine’s shortage of ammunition.
Hampered in the Black Sea, the Russian army is using other methods to hinder these exports: it is bombing port facilities in Odessa and other ports in the region. The battle for grain is therefore not over, but this return to normality is worth noting.
The encouraging sea-borne news for Ukraine contrasts with the bad news coming from the front line. The Russian army has just launched an offensive in the Kharkhiv region, which is making progress. Kyiv claims to have blocked the advances, but is worried: Russia is seeking to take advantage of Ukraine’s shortage of ammunition, ahead of promised new deliveries from the West.
So while Russia is clearly on the offensive, its failure in the Black Sea shows that the fate of the war is not inevitable.
