-Analysis-
PARIS — A plane crashes in a war zone. How did it crash? Accident or act of war? Who was on board? Who was responsible?
In the case of the Russian military transport plane that crashed on Jan. 24 in the Belgorod region of Russian territory, very close to Ukraine, we don’t have an answer to any of these questions. We’re in one of those situations, all too common, where it’s narrative against narrative, accusation against accusation.
Moscow claims that the plane, an Ilyushin-76, was shot down by Ukrainian air defense while carrying 65 Ukrainian prisoners of war for exchange that same day. Russia accuses Kyiv of a “monstrous” crime, and has called for an emergency meeting of the United Nations Security Council.
Ukraine disputes Moscow’s version, but does not deny having shot down a plane. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky accused Moscow, in his daily address, of “playing with the lives of Ukrainian prisoners, with the feelings of their relatives, and with the emotions of our society.” The Russian accusations put Kyiv on the defensive, as a prisoner exchange was scheduled for that day.
Difficult finding truth
So, how can we know who is telling the truth?
This is, in fact, impossible at this stage, and it is improbable that Russia will authorize an international investigation as requested by Ukraine: yet this is the only way to determine the facts, the people on board, and the cause of the crash.
It’s clear that Russia is doing its utmost to sow doubt in Ukrainian society, claiming that prisoners about to be released could have been shot by their own army.
Information is a weapon of war, regardless of the truth.
We need only recall a few similar cases to realize how difficult it is to know the truth. Remember the Malaysia Airlines commercial plane shot down over Ukraine in 2014: there were conflicting accusations for years, ending in November 2022 — eight years later! — with a conviction in the Netherlands of two Russians and a Ukrainian. All three men are in Russian-controlled territory.
Information war
The same applies to the Dnieper dam which exploded last June, with Kyiv and Moscow accusing each other of being behind the sabotage.
Moscow is also seeking to sow doubt among Ukraine’s allies with this downed plane, at a time of growing uncertainty about their aid. Russia wants to dissuade the West from delivering new weapons to Ukraine, enabling it to strike on Russian territory, as has been increasingly the case in recent weeks.
France reacted yesterday by confirming its intention to deliver weapons recently promised by the government. The government also said it would not comment on the Belgorod plane. “We are not in a position to say whether the Russian assertions are true or not. We are now used to Russia lying on these matters,” commented a spokesman.
This war is no exception: information is a weapon of war, regardless of the truth.
