-Analysis-
PARIS — Relief is the main reaction to Wednesday night’s announcement of a ceasefire agreement in Gaza. Relief for the hostages, 33 of the 98 of whom are expected to be freed in the first phase after a long, 15-month ordeal; and relief for the Palestinian population, subjected to a ruthless war that took on the appearance of vengeance after Hamas’s massacres of October 7.
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It is too soon to take lessons from this war — the longest in Israel‘s history — as the first phase of the agreement begins implementation on Sunday. Still, three points are worth noting.
The first is Donald Trump’s pivotal role, even before assuming office. He wanted an early diplomatic success — and has now achieved it.
Israeli media are questioning why now was the moment that Benjamin Netanyahu accepted an agreement that has been on the table, virtually unchanged, since May.
The answer is simple: agreeing in May would have triggered a political crisis in Israel with his far-right ministers; ceding ground to Donald Trump’s demand makes ending the war — without achieving all objectives — more acceptable, even if it’s still bitter for the hardliners.
Bibi calculations
For Netanyahu, and this is the second point, the situation is ambiguous. On one hand, he secured significant tactical victories by eliminating Yahya Sinwar, the Hamas leader, exacting a heavy toll on Palestinians in Gaza for October 7, and partially destroying the military capacity of the Islamist group.
Netanyahu now faces disillusionment among his far-right allies.
Yet at the same time, he has failed to achieve the initially stated goal of eradicating Hamas. Members of the group resurfaced last night during celebrations following the ceasefire announcement. For Hamas, survival had become its main objective.
Netanyahu is also allowing Palestinians to return to the northern part of Gaza, an area that seemed destined to remain uninhabited, and is redeploying his army out of populated zones, despite earlier suggestions it would remain there for years.
Furthermore, Netanyahu now faces disillusionment among his far-right allies, who had dreamed of recolonizing the Gaza Strip. This assessment will spark debate.
Day after
Third, if the agreement is implemented fully in all its phases — and that is a big “if” — the military phase will give way to a political phase. But there is a glaring void, as nothing has been secured or even planned.
This has been Netanyahu’s big weakness from the outset — he had no plan for the “day after,” a point his former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant criticized. That day is fast approaching, and nature abhors a vacuum.
Who will control Gaza, its administration, its reconstruction, and its security?
A ceasefire without an accompanying political perspective is a guarantee of a repeat of the horrors this region has just endured. The absence of a political solution does not erase problems — it exacerbates them. This has been the lesson of decades of history in the Middle East, too long ignored.
The role of the international community will prove to be important in ensuring this small glimmer of hope is not wasted. The Middle East must break free from the cycle of war, and we must help it do that.
