-Analysis-
PARIS — In the course of its history, Israel has engaged in two types of wars with its neighbors: some with states — Egypt, Syria, Jordan; others, asymmetrically, with non-state forces, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza. The first type of conflicts have ended in the classic way, as is customary between states, even enemies. The latter are more complicated, sometimes as a result of unforeseen events.
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In 1996 and 2006, when confronted by Hezbollah, it was the deadly Israeli fire on civilians in southern Lebanon that more or less directly led to the end of hostilities. In 2006, the French Catholic daily La Croix commented that “this new war in Lebanon is showing that a policy, however legitimate, is ruined by the use of immoral means.”
The same analysis could be applied today to the ongoing war in Gaza, especially after Thursday’s massacre which resulted in over 100 deaths among starving Gazan civilians. Israel’s claim of self-defense after the massacre of October 7 can in no way justify the scale of civilian casualties over the past five months, nor certainly the starvation of two million people in a collective punishment that the whole world condemns.
A rage that doesn’t end
Most Israelis don’t want to see the tragedy, because their rage hasn’t eased since October 7, and the fate of the hostages is still in the hands of Hamas. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu still promises them “total victory” — which he refuses to define.
But negotiations for a six-week ceasefire, allowing hostages to be exchanged for prisoners, and humanitarian aid to pass through, are being negotiated; if possible before the start of Ramadan, around March 10, in less than a week’s time.
A political context pleads for an end to the war.
There are several reasons for this halt to the fighting: firstly, the unbearable humanitarian situation of the two million people of Gaza, which no ally of Israel can accept, especially after Thursday’s carnage. But this is not the only reason.
There is also a political context that pleads for an end to the war. In the United States, President Joe Biden is paying for his unwavering support for Israel, and it’s in his interest to be just as committed to peace, and to a just solution for the Palestinians. His inability to influence the conduct of the war is becoming an embarrassment, especially when he has to parachute in humanitarian aid when the trucks are blocked by his Israeli allies.
You have to know how and when to stop a war
The political climate is deteriorating in Israel too: Netanyahu is furious that Benny Gantz, a member of the War Cabinet, is being officially received in Washington without his approval; Yoav Gallant, the Minister of Defense, is at odds with the rest of the government over the military conscription of Orthodox Jews; and Israeli security officials no longer trust the Minister of National Security, far-right leader Itamar Ben Gvir.
You have to know how and when to stop a war: this one has gone on far too long, to the point where no one understands what Israel gains by prolonging it.
We must now push and hope for a ceasefire to be imposed as soon as possible, and that politics will take over from the clash of arms.
