Here’s Why A Gaza Ceasefire “In The Next Few Days” Is A Real Possibility

–Analysis–

PARIS — In an increasingly tragic context, the only note of optimism is that ceasefire negotiations for Gaza are continuing. In the previous round earlier this month, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu brutally rejected Hamas’s demands for the release of the hostages.

This time — following a meeting in Paris on Friday between the heads of the U.S., Israeli, Egyptian and Qatari intelligence services — a global framework for agreement has been outlined. The Israeli government has given the go-ahead for negotiators to be sent to Doha, Qatar, today to continue discussions. Hamas is also holding parallel talks with Qatar and Egypt.

Jake Sullivan, the White House National Security Advisor, was more optimistic Sunday night about the chances of reaching a ceasefire “in the next few days.” We obviously have to remain cautious until a definitive agreement is reached, but there are reasons to believe that it could work.

U.S. using word ‘ceasefire’

The Israeli Prime Minister is under contradictory pressure from his far-right coalition, which wants to continue to strike at the Palestinians, and from a section of the Israeli population, which wants to give the hostages a chance to be freed. Society is divided: on Saturday evening, Tel Aviv saw its biggest demonstration ever in favor of early elections.

The U.S. position is gradually hardening in the face of the Netanyahu bulldozer.

Added to this climate of division is the U.S. position, which is gradually hardening in the face of the Netanyahu bulldozer. Jake Sullivan no longer hesitates to use the word “ceasefire”, instead of “truce”. Washington is annoyed by the announcement of new settlements in the West Bank, a pointless provocation in wartime. Finally, the Americans are defending a post-war vision which is the antithesis of the one Netanyahu has just put forward, which instead perpetuates the occupation.

Until now, the United States has expressed its disagreements without making itself heard by Israel — despite the political price it pays by using its veto at the UN, or in U.S. domestic politics. This negotiation will show whether Washington has really weighed in.

Beyond critical

The moment is special: Israel is still threatening to launch an offensive on the town of Rafah, where 1.4 million people are concentrated, the majority of them displaced. Getting them to move again is impossible: a battle in this context would have such a huge cost among the civilians that the whole world is warning the Israelis against it.

The humanitarian situation is already beyond critical. Aid is not arriving in sufficient quantities, and this is causing riots and insecurity, preventing aid from reaching the most vulnerable.

Last but not least, Ramadan begins in barely two weeks’ time, on or around March 10. A ceasefire, probably lasting six weeks, would bring relief to civilians, ease regional tension during the month of religious celebration, and free hostages and prisoners, who are expected on both sides.

It’s always difficult to stop a war, but if this opportunity is missed, it will be a disastrous tragedy, both from a human and a political perspective.