-Analysis-
PARIS — A ceasefire could be reached at any moment between Israel and Hamas, putting to an end — at least temporarily — a war that has so far lasted 466 days. Of course, in this kind of negotiation, nothing is certain until it is signed: more than once in the past last minute obstacles have derailed such efforts.
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But this time, a new factor could tip the scales—the arrival of Donald Trump in the White House next Monday. In fact, the war could have, and arguably should have, ended weeks or even months ago. Israel has gained nothing more since the death of Yahia Sinwar, the leader of Hamas, last October, according to a number of Israeli military experts.
The “Trump effect” is not just the president-elect’s threat that Hamas would face hell if it didn’t release Israeli hostages before his inauguration. Gazans are already facing hell, and that warning was too vague to have an effect. The reasons lie elsewhere.
Who is Steve Witkoff?
One key factor is the close relationship between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Donald Trump. The president-elect’s envoy, Steve Witkoff — Trump’s golf buddy who is known for his pro-Israeli positions — is participating in the ceasefire negotiations in Qatar. Witkoff was in Israel late last week consulting with Netanyahu.
It’s highly unusual for a president-elect’s team to be this involved at this point in the transition. The Biden administration insists there is total coordination between the teams, but it was only after Trump’s team got involved that Netanyahu reportedly became more “flexible,” according to Barak Ravid, one of Israel’s best informed journalists. Trump wants to enter the White House with a success that Joe Biden couldn’t get on his own.
Trump’s involvement has also helped calm the far right parties in Israel’s ruling coalition, which oppose any ceasefire — in return, they’re hoping for his support of the annexation of the West Bank. Still, hundreds of Israelis protested against the ceasefire plan last night.
Terms of a ceasefire
According to the agreement negotiated in Doha with Qatar and Egypt’s mediation — still awaiting the green light from Hamas — 33 Israeli hostages out of 98, including women, children, and men over 55, held since October 7, 2023, would finally be freed. In exchange, 1,000 Palestinian prisoners would be released simultaneously. A second phase would be negotiated 16 days later.
What comes next?
The new Israeli concession is to allow Palestinians to return to the northern Gaza Strip, which had been evacuated and leveled. A ceasefire would also permit a huge stream of new humanitarian aid, which is only arriving at a trickle today.
At the very least, the bombings would stop, having claimed 46,000 lives, according to Hamas, with significantly higher numbers reported in a recent study by the medical journal The Lancet.
The unresolved question remains: what comes next? Israel recently stated that its army would remain in Gaza for years to come, but that position seems less certain now. The future for Palestinians is equally uncertain under an American president who supports Israel’s hardest-line policies. But Trump can claim to have, if not brought peace, at least stopped the war.
