-Analysis-
BEIRUT — The “two-state solution” had been very much back on the table following the launch of Israel’s war on Gaza, and later on Lebanon. National leaders around the world returned to talking about the establishment of a Palestinian homeland alongside the Jewish State as the only avenue for resolving the Palestinian-Israeli and Arab-Israeli conflicts.
The Gulf states, which had gone beyond this longstanding term and referred to the unconditional “Abrahamic Peace,” re-introduced the “two-state solution” into their diplomatic language over the past year.
The United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia viewed this condition as an “inevitable path,” and although they exercised caution regarding the normalization steps with Israel, they felt that including the two-state solution equation in their official discourse was unavoidable.
Today, with the coming return of Donald Trump to the White House, we must expect a major shift on how the Middle East will be approach both in Washington and within the region.
Trump’s two sons-in-law
The Democratic administration of President Joe Biden has been talking about the “two-state solution” as the inevitable strategic horizon, while Trump’s former administration didn’t use the two-state solution in its discourse.
The “Abrahamic Peace” was what it proposed to the Arab world, which includes no reference to the Palestinians’ right to a state, let alone the steps that accompanied it in the first Trump era, including moving the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem, and recognizing it as the capital of Israel.
The return of “Abrahamic Peace” will find acceptance among the Gulf regimes
If Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law, is out of the scene today, the new faces may shock us more severely. Lebanese-American Michael Boulos, Trump’s other son-in-law, and his father, businessman Massad Boulos, may be the ones to take on the task!
Alternative homeland
The likely return to the “Abrahamic Peace” will find acceptance among the Gulf regimes, especially since it is accompanied by an alignment that these regimes see as protecting them from Iran.
In addition, it addresses investment ambitions that see politics as being made in corporate offices. They prioritize business over principles that have become — in their view — obsolete merchandise.
It is a return to Trump’s “Deal of the Century,” which will have its victims, and not only the Palestinians. Jordan — according to the “Deal of the Century” map — is the country that Benjamin Netanyahu aspires to make the “alternative homeland” for the Palestinians.
Deal of the Century
This realignment has its consequences. The elimination of the Palestinian ambition for a state can only be achieved through transfer from west of the river to east of it. And Amman views this plan as an existential threat to the kingdom itself.
The reawakening of Trump’s map will come this time enriched by two wars waged by Israel, in Gaza and Lebanon. This may tickle the imagination of the “new master” of the White House to introduce the results of these two wars into the scene of the Abrahamic Middle East.
One needs a vivid imagination to pursue such Trumpian possibilities.
Jordan and Egypt
The Abrahamic Middle East, with no trace of a Palestinian state, may require, for example, reviving the ambitions of transfer from Gaza to Egypt. This plan appeared at the beginning of the war, but Netanyahu did not find anyone to turn it into reality.
Half of Gaza’s population in Sinai in exchange for exempting Egypt from debts.
In this newfangled “Abrahamic” culture, such issues can be liquidated by paying a straightforward economic price.
The relationship between Trump and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi involves a possibility of this kind: Half of Gaza’s population in Sinai in exchange for exempting Egypt from debts, in addition to dangling some investment temptations.
The rest of Gaza’s population can be transformed into a workforce in such an investment scheme, after the Strip is transformed into a tourist beach that mimics the Egyptian tourist cities that grew under the authority of Sisi.
We should not rule out this possibility.
Accomplish the mission
As for the war on Lebanon, the disaster precedes Trump — and Netanyahu’s hands will be free in the coming months.
The idea of striking Iran’s proxies before the formation of the new administration in Washington allows Israel to negotiate a different reality in which it has as much power and territory as possible.
None of these scenarios are exaggerated in light of the huge upheaval that the U.S. elections will trigger. Even if we are facing a softened version of the first Trump experience, what appears from the Middle Eastern perspective of the man’s policy does not herald a major change.
Netanyahu is very close to the new administration, and if what is required is for him to end the war in Gaza and Lebanon before the new administration takes office, this means “accomplishing the mission” and intensifying the steps — and that means doubling the death toll.