October 7 And The Gaza War: A Double Godsend For Political Islam

-Analysis-

CAIRO — Before Hamas’s unprecedented Oct. 7 attack (called “Operation Al-Aqsa Flood”), the demise of political Islam was considered imminent and certain, following a decade of failed attempts in power.

Despite the success of the Taliban — which returned to power in Afghanistan after 20 years — political Islam has experienced numerous setbacks in recent years: Muslim Brotherhood, was overthrown in Tunisia and has declined in Morocco and elsewhere; and jihadism (Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State) has declined. This had led expectations for the end of traditional political Islam to prevail, even within an integral part of the camp that supported it.

Yet Operation Al-Aqsa Flood changed has changed those thoughts, and offered another perspective that casts the recent defeats as mere stumbling blocks on an unfinished path.

The attack, which struck at the heart of Israel, came as dynamic transformations are taking place within the framework of the Islamic movement.

Within the Muslim Brotherhood, these changes, include the introduction of its political project and the discrepancies between the factions of Salah Abdel-Haq (acting general guide) and Mahmoud Hussein (former secretary-general). Within the Muslim Brotherhood, Abdel-Haq‘s faction has changed its political discourse, expressing its willingness to reconcile with the Egyptian regime in exchange for the release of the group’s prisoners. The Muslim Brotherhood also made organizational changes on both fronts, another sign of how dynamic the current situation may be.

As for ISIS, it’s adoption of a less strict approach on takfir (accusing fellow Muslims of heresy or unbelief) has allowed it to regain some momentum. It is not clear if the deadly attack last month on the Moscow theater is related, but helps feed momentum for ISIS, which took responsibility.

In this context, political Islam groups are strengthened by the possibility of returning to the scene. Operation Al-Aqsa Flood proved that the bar is still high. But it revived the historical conflict between the East and the West — and its symbolism for Islamists.

A new opportunity

Before Oct. 7, the main political Islam groups had been trying to regain effectiveness following their dramatic defeat and fall of the state model they had been promoting. Yet these groups continue to exist for political, economic, social and even psychological reasons which — along with confronting colonialism, Westernization and cultural alienation — had led to the groups’ emergence.

Authoritarian regimes have also helped to whitewash Islamists. They have continued use official religious institutions to adapt texts that serve their interests has undermined their credibility and public influence — benefitting Islamists.

The Islamic movement has the opportunity to return with its transnational project.

Internal factors within Islamic groups cannot be ignored. These groups have experience in secret political work under tight security conditions — which has allowed their survival in countries where they clashed with ruling regimes. Muslim Brotherhood members in Egypt are still active secretly and represent .

At first glance, it seems that the “axis of moderation” led be Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates has won most of the rounds of the confrontation with Islamists. But it has become clear that the task is more complex than some imagined; the Islamic movement has the opportunity to return with its transnational project.

Mistakes repeated

Operation Al-Aqsa Flood has given the Islamists new momentum. After years of fragmentation and confusion, the Muslim Brotherhood seems to have finally found what should it do, and has intensified its activities toward the diaspora and returned to seeking the people’s sympathy.

The attack and Israel’s subsequent war in Gaza has contributed to presenting political Islam, including Hamas, as the only party confronting the Israeli occupation in a time of normalisation. The official American and Western bias toward Israel has also undermined claims of coexistence and anti-isolationism, thus supporting the Islamist stance on the impossibility of coexistence.

This situation is creating — or has already created — the conditions for the Islamists’ return. Previous mistakes are being repeated, providing fertile environment for the growth and expansion of political Islam.

So history seems doomed to repeat itself with its tragedies and farces.

The factors that led to the formation and emergence of political Islam groups still exist, in addition to the fact that their ideology is more present than before in the consciousness and subconsciousness of many groups, especially young people, many of them are in a state of vaccine and identity loss that makes them ready for recruitment and polarisation through the methods and mechanisms used by Islamist groups.

The future of these groups is not expected to be better than their past — unless they radically change their strategic approach and mindset. Previous experiences have shown that Islamist groups do not learn from their mistakes either. So history seems doomed to repeat itself with its tragedies and farces. Political Islam will persist as long as the reasons for its existence do. Yet even if it is in power, it will be incapable of a solution.

Opponents must find a more comprehensive approach to deal with political Islam movement if they really want to write the movement’s final chapter.