Like Germany Rooted Out Nazis, Gaza Will Do The Same With Hamas

-Analysis-

BERLIN — All wars are hell. But every one of these hells must end at some point. Every war is “policy by other means,” as the saying goes, — namely, by means of violence.

What will come after the hell of the current war with Hamas? What will the future of Israel and Palestine look like? So far, the international community has offered no realistic long-term solutions.

It is pointless to endlessly repeat the “two-state solution,” which is an idea that has failed time and time again. It has been presented to the Palestinians four times, and four times it has been rejected: in 1993 (the Oslo Accords), 2000/2001 (a proposal from Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak), then in 2008 (a proposal from Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert) and 2020, although this time it was more limited in scope (a proposal from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and U.S. President Donald Trump).

For the Palestinians in the West Bank, these proposals have remained nothing more than a piece of paper. In July 2005, the hope became a reality for those living in Gaza, when Israeli settlers and the army withdrew. The possibility of a “Singapore in Gaza” seemed to be on the horizon. Instead, in 2007 Hamas seized power, amassed weapons and started using civilian infrastructure – hospitals, schools and mosques – for military purposes.

Those who want to shape the future must be clear about the strategic aims of those who started the war. That was undeniably Hamas, on Oct. 7. But the real winner is Iran: without firing a single shot, they have seen their enemy Israel weakened, at least temporarily.

Gaza has been reduced to rubble, and the death toll for Palestinians is very high. Civilian suffering will last for a long time; the results of Hamas’s strategy are suicidal for Palestinians. Still, surveys in Gaza and the West Bank have shown that support for Hamas’s terrorist activity has skyrocketed since Oct. 7.

We must draw the inevitable, bitter conclusion: just like Germans up until May 8, 1945, Palestinians cannot, or do not want, to free themselves from their leaders, and therefore from themselves. And yet, like the German people under Hitler, they are being used as cannon fodder.

Some “experts” counter that, for the first time in a long while, Hamas has broken the stalemate in the conflict with Israel, drawing the attention of the world to the suffering of Palestinians, and bringing the Global South almost unanimously onto their side.

But the Palestinians succeeded in raising global awareness through terrorist acts in the 1970s, including in 1972 with the attack on Israeli athletes during the Olympic Games in Munich. At that point there were 800 settlers in the West Bank. Today there are 700,000.

When it comes to such “successes,” which the exiled Hamas leadership celebrate, we cannot help but think of the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO) politician Issam Sartawi. When the PLO leadership celebrated their expulsion from Lebanon in 1982 as a “victory,” Sartawi warned: “Another victory like this and the PLO will find itself in the Fiji Islands.” In April 1983, he was killed.

The bittersweet example of Germany

Just as it was difficult for Germany to root out National Socialism in 1945, it will take a long time for the people of Palestine to turn away from Hamas’s ideology. As in West Germany in 1945, in the long term, military defeat could lead to an economic and political rebirth.

Palestinians could embrace the words of Germans at that time: “We have been liberated – from ourselves.” The example of Germany is a bittersweet lesson: first comes a change in power, then a change in worldview.

The example of West Germany after 1945 could also be a blueprint for the solution to the Palestinian problem. The first step would be an occupation, when civil government could be handed over to local stakeholders. But even if the U.S. were to insist on having an international coalition ensuring security in Gaza, Israel would not accept this – at least, not fully.

First comes a change in power, then a change in worldview

It is possible to imagine a joint force of American, British, German, French and Arab soldiers, mainly from Egypt and Jordan. As neighbouring countries, they are directly affected by the conflict, and it doesn’t benefit them to see Palestinians heavily armed and radicalized. The King of Jordan treats Palestinians as a fifth column within his country.

In the long term, Gaza, like West Germany from 1949 onwards, could prosper economically and decide its own future, as an autonomous demilitarized canton, or later as a sovereign state of “Gaza-Palestine,” but without its own army. The fact that East and West Germany became remilitarized was due to the international politics of the Cold War and the Korean War from 1950 onwards.

This proposed model would allow Palestinians to determine their own fate. Just as Germans had to root out the Nazi Party, the Palestinians will have to get rid of Hamas – it is in their own interest to do so. As late as the 1960s, many Germans still found it very difficult to turn their backs on Nazism. But it was the right thing for them and for the world. It will be a similar story for the Palestinians.

What is the future of the West Bank?

Gaza is the first priority, but we cannot put off deciding the future of the West Bank indefinitely. Like in Gaza, a long period of occupation would allow a new start, putting in place new administrative and political structures with local (non-Hamas) leaders. “West Bank Palestine” would at first be a demilitarized canton, then a nation state.

And the Jewish settlers? Why can around 20,000 Israelis live in Berlin and hundreds of thousands in the U.S., as immigrants, but not in the West Bank? If the settlers commit acts of violence, they should be sent back to Israel and face justice there.

Given that the population of Jordan is around 80% Palestinian, creating a confederation made up of Gaza, the West Bank and Jordan could be a realistic security proposal. Jordan is also militarily sovereign, and could intervene on behalf of the Palestinians if necessary.

If enemies become dependent on each other, and work closely together, they will not go to war.

Another reasonable proposal would be close economic integration of these three territories. Jordan is already dependent on Israel for transport, energy and water, just like the West Bank and Gaza. Israel has always supplied it reliably, and will continue to do so.

If enemies become dependent on each other, and work closely together, they will not go to war. That was the central principle of Robert Schuman’s revolutionary philosophy for achieving peace – at that time, in relation to Germany and France – in his declaration on May 9, 1950, five years to the day after the Second World War. The plan named after him saw the start of joint European projects that would ultimately become the European Union.