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PARIS — Monday marks the fourth and final day of the ceasefire agreed upon between Israel and Hamas. Does that mean the war resumes Tuesday in Gaza? Probably not, and here is why…
During the first three days of the ceasefire, 40 Israeli hostages, mostly women and children, were returned to the Jewish state. According to the terms of the agreement, three times as many Palestinian prisoners were released. Additionally, 35 Thai nationals and one Filipino, also kidnapped on Oct. 7, were released separately, as part of a negotiation that went through Iran. And one Russian citizen, according to Hamas, “in response to the efforts of Russian President [Vladimir] Putin and in appreciation of the Russian position in support of the Palestinian cause.”
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A fourth exchange is scheduled for Monday. Meanwhile, over these same past three days, hundreds of aid trucks have been able to enter Gaza, where humanitarian conditions are catastrophic.
What will happen Tuesday, considering that Hamas still holds more than 180 hostages? All communication channels have been hard at work for the past 24 hours, to extend this ceasefire and facilitate the release of more hostages and prisoners.
Qatar has been leading the negotiation efforts. An envoy from Doha arrived in Israel on a special flight on Saturday — something worth noting, given that the two countries have no diplomatic relations. The United States is also very active, with President Joe Biden personally intervening on Saturday, when the agreement showed signs of impending collapse.
Hamas needs the ceasefire
But more important maybe, on an emotional level, is the mobilization of the Israeli public around the return of the hostages. On Saturday evening, in the center of Tel Aviv, an estimated 100,000 people gathered to mark 50 days since the Oct. 7 attack.
It thus seems impossible for the Israeli government to resume the war Tuesday if it has the opportunity to save more hostages — people would just not bear it.
It is through the ceasefire, not war, that Israel is able to recover the hostages.
The agreement, signed under Qatari supervision, stipulates that the ceasefire can be extended by 24 hours for every additional 10 released hostages. Hamas has expressed its readiness to do so — which is in its interest: It is in dire need of a prolonged pause after the relentless bombings. And it holds onto the Israeli soldiers it captured on Oct. 7 in reserve: They will be the subject of a separate negotiation, at a higher price.
The Israeli government is opposed to a ceasefire. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was with his troops in Gaza on Sunday, wearing a bulletproof vest and helmet, to reaffirm the three objectives of the war: recover all hostages, eliminate Hamas, prevent Gaza from becoming a threat to Israel again. And yet, it has become quite clear that it is only the ceasefire, not war, that has allowed Israel to recover said hostages.
U.S. and Israel, behind the scenes
Behind the scenes, it’s the negotiations between the Americans and Israelis that counts most right now — both about whether or not to resume the war and about finding a political solution to the crisis. For Biden, the latter is an imperative, not for Netanyahu.
The Israeli government has pushed back against anything and anyone calling for an end to the war. The Belgian and Spanish prime ministers who called for a ceasefire were sharply reprimanded this weekend by Israel.
Such nervousness speaks volumes about how decisive a moment this is for a war that the rest of the world no longer understands.
