-Analysis-
CAIRO — Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi has delayed his encounter with U.S. President Donald Trump, a friend-turned-potential-nemesis, who has called for all Palestinians in Gaza to be forced to relocate to Egypt and Jordan.
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Despite vehement rejection from Cairo and Amman — major U.S. allies in the Middle East — Trump is insisting on his proposal, which has shaken the region. Through his proposal, Trump is potentially seeking to remove Sisi, using U.S. military aid and support Ethiopia in its water dispute with Egypt. Addis Ababa built the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on a main tributary of the Nile River.
Reports say that the Egyptian leader has postponed a visit to the White House. Yet neither Sisi’s office nor the White House announced that the leaders would meet soon.
Sisi is reportedly waiting for the outcome of a summit for Arab leaders later this month. While such summits usually produce non-binding recommendations, this gathering is viewed as a protective tool: Egypt will now be required to present a practical position regarding the proposed transfer of Palestinians to Egypt and Jordan.
Arab lobbying
Egypt has begun lobbying to counter Trump’s plan. Sisi spoke by phone with Arab, European and Asian leaders as well as the United Nations chief, according to the president’s spokesman. In all his calls, the Egyptian leader stressed “the necessity of starting the reconstruction of the Gaza Strip… without transferring its residents,” according to readouts of his calls with world leaders.
Sisi also stressed that establishing a Palestinian state on the borders of June 4, 1967, with East Jerusalem as its capital is “the only guarantee for reaching permanent peace and achieving the desired stability and economic prosperity” in the Middle East.
Regional countries also rejected Trump’s plan. Saudi Arabia also insisted that normalizing ties with Israel is linked to the establishment of a Palestinian state. They also announced their support to Egypt’s yet-to-be announced proposal for Gaza’s reconstruction, which counters Trump’s plan.
Trump could use the dam issue to pressure Egypt.
Tariq Al-Bannai, Kuwait’s envoy to the United Nations and current head of the Arab Group at the world organization, said the Arab countries stand in united against Trump’s plan to transfer the people of Gaza, stressing “the need to respect the rights of the Palestinian people and work to achieve a just and comprehensive peace in the region.”
Egypt, however, could pay a price for its position. Sisi is in a difficult situation: either accepting Trump’s suggestion of moving Palestinians to Egypt, or opposing his proposal. The latter would likely lead Washington to cut aid to Egypt, including military assistance. That could destabilize Egypt.
Four years ago, Trump expressed his administration’s support to Egypt in its dispute with Ethiopia over its dam on the Nile River tributary. Trump could use the dam issue to pressure Egypt on its opposition to his Gaza plan. In his first term, Trump said that Egypt could blow up the dam. Now he could say Ethiopia is should bomb Cairo! He could also fan the flames over Egyptian military presence in Somalia.
Insulting Trump
Last year, Egyptian security forces arrested Egyptian demonstrators in support of Palestine, including soccer fans who waved the Palestinian flag in a soccer game last year. Yet earlier this month the government allowed a demonstration in front of the Rafah crossing to reject Trump’s proposal. Egyptian media outlets described Sisi as the protector of national sovereignty and defender of the Palestinian cause.
The irony now is that supporting Sisi means backing the Palestinian cause, and whoever wants to show his loyalty to Palestine must support Sisi and end any political hostility with him.
Local media outlets have changed their tone. Egyptian privately owned daily newspaper Youm7, which once described Trump as a man of intelligence and cunning, reported comments by Essam Hilal, a pro-government lawmaker, calling Trump “an idiot” who wants to initiate wars around the world.
Eternal diaspora
Transferring the Palestinians from Gaza to Egypt is not a new idea. Israeli officials have long called for forcing Gaza’s people to the Sinai Peninsula. There was also “The Generals’ Plan,” which called for emptying northern Gaza.
As Egypt has refused to take in the Palestinians, Israeli officials, including Defense Minister Israel Katz, floated the idea of what they called “voluntary migration.” He also called for countries critical to Israel including Spain, Ireland and Norway to take in Palestinians. These ideas and efforts have gained momentum after Trump announced his proposal, which threatens to inflame the entire region.
Will Trump succeed in achieving his dream of turning Gaza into “the Riviera of the Middle East,” and push the Palestinians into eternal diaspora? If he does, a steep price will also be paid in Egypt and Jordan.
