-Analysis-
CAIRO — Israel upended the ceasefire agreement and resumed the war in Gaza at dawn on Tuesday. Yet the Israeli government claims that the return to war does not mean it is retreating from its goal of freeing the hostages; it intends to continue negotiations under fire.
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The conflict in the Gaza Strip has recently reached a deadlock that is not easy to untangle, given Israel’s rigid stance in negotiations and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s pursuit of gains that promote a narrative of absolute victory.
He is attempting to maintain his governing coalition and prevent its collapse by securing the release of all Israeli hostages. Meanwhile resistance factions, led by Hamas, remain firm in their conditions for ending the war and achieving full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza.
Negotiations have failed to enter the second phase of the ceasefire agreement. And there have been multiple proposals to ease the crisis and resolve the deadlock in an effort to prevent the war from reigniting.
Israel’s conditions for moving forward with the agreement were clearly expressed by Energy Minister Eli Cohen, a member of Netanyahu’s Likud party, in a televised statement: “We have conditions, and we want Hamas to comply with them — return all detainees, disarm the Gaza Strip, and establish Israeli security control over the area. We want everything.”
Cohen, who insists that the only certainty is that “Hamas will not exist the next day,” represents the demands of hardliners in the government, particularly Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, who set these conditions as prerequisites for remaining in Netanyahu’s government.
In response to Cohen’s statement, Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdel Aty recently revealed details of the Egyptian proposal, which was adopted by the Arab League at its emergency summit in Cairo on March 4. He clarified that the Egyptian-Arab vision addresses two key issues: governance of Gaza and filling the security vacuum. Both issues are central to Israel’s position.
Decline of the displacement plan
U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent statements appear to signal a temporary retreat from the displacement plan. This comes as Egyptian diplomatic sources and Palestinian faction leaders confirm that the approach advocated by mediators in Egypt and Qatar has prevailed over the vision and demands Netanyahu sought to impose.
The most practical and implementable vision is Egypt’s emergency plan for reconstruction.
In this context, a senior Egyptian diplomatic source familiar with the negotiations told Al-Manassa that Egypt is not concerned about achieving Israel’s goal of disarming the Palestinian resistance — a goal Israel has failed to accomplish despite 15 months of war on Gaza. He confirmed that this message had been conveyed to officials in both Washington and Tel Aviv.
The situation has become more complex due to Hamas’ insistence on ending the war and a complete Israeli withdrawal from Gaza before resuming the prisoner exchange deal — and to Netanyahu’s rejection of those conditions. Therefore, the Egyptian proposal has emerged as the most feasible and realistic solution.
Ending Hamas’ control
An Egyptian diplomat, who spoke to Al-Manassa on condition of anonymity, said that the most practical and implementable vision is Egypt’s emergency plan for reconstruction. This plan includes forming a temporary committee to govern Gaza for six months and establishing a new police force in the strip that is not affiliated with Hamas.
The diplomat explained that the Egyptian proposal involves overseeing the formation of a police force in Gaza composed of independent Palestinians, numbering approximately 50,000 personnel. Egypt would train the majority of them, with additional training provided by Jordan and the European Union. Their selection would be coordinated with families and clans, and their backgrounds would be vetted to ensure they are not affiliated with any factions.
He emphasized that this approach essentially meets American and Israeli demands that Gaza not pose a future threat to Israel, while also removing Hamas from administrative and security control over the strip.
Beyond ensuring that Hamas no longer governs Gaza, this plan also provides an exit strategy for Netanyahu, who is facing threats from extremists within his coalition. He could claim success in achieving one of the objectives he promoted during the war: ending Hamas’ control of Gaza.
A complete Israeli withdrawal
Another major obstacle remains: Hamas’ insistence on a complete Israeli military withdrawal from Gaza. Mediators are seeking a resolution through a proposal introduced by Hamas for a long-term truce.
This proposal represents a middle-ground solution that could allow Netanyahu to maneuver between the hardliners in his government and prevent the coalition from collapsing. He could also avoid an official declaration of “ending the war.” For Hamas, the truce would fulfill its two main conditions: the withdrawal of Israeli forces from all of Gaza; and bringing this round of war to a close.
The Egyptian plan provides an exit strategy for the embattled Israeli government.
After the ceasefire agreement was reached in Gaza in January, Finance Minister Smotrich stated that he did not oppose the first phase of the deal on the condition that Netanyahu committed to resuming military operations in Gaza afterward in order to keep the government intact and prevent its dissolution.
A Hamas leader told Al-Manassa that resistance groups are convinced that Israel is not serious about establishing a Palestinian state, regardless of the pressure imposed on it. He said that Israel considers a Palestinian state an existential threat, as it contradicts the Jewish belief that “Judea and Samaria” (the West Bank) are the heart of the Jewish state. Therefore, he said, all proposed solutions are essentially temporary measures.
“Semi-permanent” solution
The Hamas leader said that the movement had shown significant flexibility over the Egyptian plan backed by the Arab League during the negotiations in Cairo. Hamas expressed its willingness to facilitate the work of the proposed administrative committee and not obstruct its activities. The movement’s leadership also agreed to the Egyptian proposal of relinquishing security control over Gaza by allowing a new police force to take charge of internal security in the strip.
Despite the grim reality of renewed bombardment, ground operations and Netanyahu’s political maneuvers, efforts to reach a long-term ceasefire continue. One of the most significant proposals on the table is the latest initiative presented by Trump’s Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, which could pave the way for a “semi-permanent” or, more accurately, an “interim” solution to end this round of conflict.
The Egyptian proposal appears to offer a pragmatic approach to breaking the deadlock. While it does not adopt Israel’s agenda of disarming resistance groups, it provides an exit strategy for the embattled Israeli government. And the success of this temporary solution hinges on Israel’s commitment to avoiding renewed escalation.
