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WASHINGTON — The last time Patty Harnish, a store clerk who lives in the state of Pennsylvania, voted was 28 years: to reelect the Democratic President Bill Clinton in the 1990s. Now, she recently told the New York Times that she feels “proud” every time she sees the Republican candidate and ex-president Donald J. Trump.
The 58-year-old had Sunday’s local newspaper in her hand, showing a bloodied Trump remaining defiant after the failed attempt to assassinate him on Saturday. Footage showed him urging the crowd to fight, as his followers chanted back “U.S.A, U.S.A..”
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There is no doubt that the attack will provide Trump supporters with a new, iconic image and a decisive turn in the campaign. Until Saturday, polls were putting Trump just slightly ahead of the incumbent President Joe Biden, even after Biden’s bungled debate that had led to many of his fellow Democrats calling on him to pull out of the race for age and health reasons.
Still, Trump had reached his electoral ceiling: he could count on millions of consolidated votes but was finding it hard to reach key sectors like women, or moderate and non-partisan swing voters who play the crucial role in deciding U.S. elections. Will the events that took place in Pennsylvania this weekend change that formula?
Biden’s troubles
Biden was and still is fighting for his political life, against growing pressures in his party to step aside as he may be unfit to govern another four years. His argument was that he is the only who can defeat Trump (and he maintains consistent traction with women and minority voters): so the party should focus on attacking his billionaire rival, his criminal record and attempts to subvert democracy.
Some members of Trump’s team have already tried to capitalize on the shooting.
What will he do now? For a start, in the near term, he will find it difficult to attack Trump or keep reminding people of his criminal conviction and other outstanding indictments so as not to seem insensitive to the shocking attack. While it is of course too soon to make bold affirmations about the results in November, in one fell swoop, the attack may have spoiled both Biden’s careful efforts of recent days and weeks to reassure his allies, not to mention those inside the Democratic party trying to push him to the sidelines.
Some members of Trump’s team have already tried to capitalize on the shooting to try to bury his rival. University of Dayton political science professor Christopher Devine told Clarín that Trump supporters are uniting and some, including a possible vice-presidential running mate JD Vance, have blamed Biden or his party for indirectly provoking the attack. This may sound absurd, he says, but has revealed how the attack has given politicians like Vance an excuse to exacerbate existing tensions. It might even be a sign of where the country is heading, he said.
Simple formula
A more encouraging signal, he said, was in the president’s immediate call on Americans to cool it down, though Devine was not overly optimistic the two campaigns, and especially the Republicans, would use the incident to try to pacify Americans before November.
Stephen Craig, a political science professor at the University of Florida, says he doubts in turn that the incident could change people’s loyalties or voting intentions, given the country’s polarization. Trump voters were as angry as they could be while some of his opponents, he told Clarín, disliked him enough to have possibly wished the sharpshooter had hit his target.
Clearly, Trump haters are not about to change their opinions about him over the shooting, nor will his partisans waver now. It is possible a new “resilient” image of Trump could sway sectors of the undecided vote or motivate traditional non-voters. All Trump has to do is, well, keep calm and carry on. But is he capable of that?
It would be a simple formula of speaking about unity and presenting himself as a fighter in the face of adversity, someone who doesn’t quit. That’s an image that could resonate with middle-of-the-road “swing” voters and those who tend to sit out elections, like Patty from Pennsylvania. But we’ve also learned from Trump, for better or worse, to expect the unexpected.
