–Analysis–
TURIN — For years the same accusation keeps surfacing in debates about birthrates: “This is a selfish generation.” This is accompanied by phrases such as: They do not want to make sacrifices; they only think of themselves; they refuse responsibility….
Yet if we look at the data and at recent history, this moral reading of demographics does not hold up.
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Italy has been living with chronic low fertility for almost 50 years. The fertility rate fell below replacement level, that is fewer than two children per woman, as early as the mid 1970s and has never risen since.
The real difference between then and now lies not in individual behavior, but in the population structure. Back then, there were many potential mothers; today, there are fewer.
In the 1980s and 1990s, even a woman who chose to have few children still belonged to a large cohort. Now, those born in the 1980s or 1990s are a numerical minority. In other words, not only is each woman having fewer children, there are also fewer women of childbearing age.
Consequently, even if the inclination to have children were identical to that of 40 years ago, the total number of births would still be much lower.
Potential parents
The 2024 fertility figures released by the Italian statistical agency ISTAT are unambiguous. The total fertility rate has fallen to a record low of 1.18 children per woman, while total births are under 370,000 and continue to decline. But ISTAT itself, in earlier reports, showed that roughly three-quarters of this drop in births is due to structural factors, namely the steadily shrinking number of potential parents.
Birthrates arise from the sum of individual decisions, but those decisions do not form in a vacuum
Blaming all this on “today’s women” is an error in logic even before politics. It ignores the fact that people now in their thirties are the sons and daughters of a generation that already had few children, whether for economic reasons, lack of support, or personal choice.
Today’s generations are reproached for not compensating for yesterday’s choices, as if demographics could be corrected by an act of individual will. Birthrates arise from the sum of individual decisions, but those decisions do not form in a vacuum. They take shape within social, economic, and cultural conditions that set the boundaries of what is possible.
Demographically impossible
Asking younger generations to “make up for it” is not only unfair, it is demographically impossible.
The generational change is nonetheless different. Parenthood is no longer the cornerstone of identity and society that it once was. It is one option among others, within lives that are more uncertain but also freer. This does not mean family policies are unnecessary. On the contrary, they are needed more than ever, not to “raise the birthrate,” but to support well being, equality, and inclusion, the conditions in which, if and when someone chooses to have children, they can do so without giving up everything else.
That said, this is not just a matter of deciding who is “selfish.” It is about how generations look at one another. If I cannot understand the motivations of younger people, and their legitimate choice not to have or want children, perhaps I should point the finger not at them but at my own failure to understand. Because those new values, the search for balance, autonomy, and meaning, have value in themselves and should be recognized as part of change, not as a fault.
As long as we keep treating the fall in fertility as a problem to be fixed rather than a reality we can learn to live with, we will stay trapped in an empty debate filled with generational blame and illusory solutions. Accepting reality, that society changes, that families change, that desires change too, is the first step toward rethinking public policies not against declining birthrates, but for a future built on mutual respect.
