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Society

French Protests: Risk Of A "Yellow Vest" Rerun

The pushing through of a bill to raise the retirement age in France has caused widespread, sometimes violent, protests. The government is worried the movement will spread, as unions warn the protests are just beginning.

Image of a protester wearing a yellow vest and holding a smoke bomb near a fire started during a protest.

A 'Yellow Vest' protester holds a smoke bomb during a demonstration in the Place de la Concorde.

Grégoire Poussielgue

-Analysis-

PARIS — The peaceful ambiance last month of anti-government demonstrations in France has given way to something else. But what exactly is the new nature of the protests? Are we witnessing the emergence of a social movement destined to last, and paralyze the country like the so-called "yellow vests" five years ago?

Since last Thursday, when the French government passed a bill on pension reform increasing the retirement age from 62 to 64, President Emmanuel Macron and his government have been facing a new form of protest. It is more radical, sometimes more violent, but also more diffuse and especially uncontrollable.

In Paris, after two evenings of "wild" demonstrations, people were forbidden from gathering and protesting at Place de la Concorde, one of the city's major public squares, on Saturday evening and the area was placed under heavy police surveillance. The problem was only averted because another demonstration took place in another square, Place d'Italie, leading to clashes with the police.


In several cities in France, spontaneous rallies and demonstrations took place, often led with violence. Many offices of elected officials were vandalized and the Minister of the Interior was asked for increased protection for elected officials.

Macron on the defensive

The sparks of violence and dispersed nature of the current protests recall the yellow vest (gilets jaunes) movement that began in 2018, lashing out at rising gasoline prices, with weekly protests and occasional riots throughout France.

"It is too early to say whether there are similarities with the "yellow vests" movement or the Nuit Debout movement [unleashed against the 2016 labor law]. All of this remains very uncertain and no one can say what it may lead to," says a government source.

The current protest is based on a strong opposition in public opinion to the use of Article 49.3 — which allows the government to force passage of a bill without a vote — to push through the retirement bill. According to Harris Interactive, 82% of the French population believe that using this article is a "bad thing" and 71% think that the government should resign.

Some 65% of them also wish for the movement against the pension reform to continue, even after the parliamentary process is over. The use of the 49.3 acted as a detonator of anger with unpredictable consequences. Left-wing parties are leading the movement.

A group of protesters wearing yellow vests and holding banners.

A file photo of 2018 of Yellow Vests protesting in the streets and march to raise attention to the increase of social and economic issues in France following the presidential election.

Andy Barton/SOPA Images via Zuma

Warnings by the unions

"This movement is remarkably calm and pacifist. We are dealing with a power that has made a mockery of the world and you are surprised that people are upset," said Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of the La France Insoumise group, on Sunday.

We cannot prohibit people from demonstrating. We need the youth to mobilize more massively.

The left can still appeal to the Constitutional Council, but it also wants to maintain pressure in the streets of the city.

Last Friday, the deputy leader of the Greens Sandrine Rousseau even called on the police to join the movement and put the responsibility for the unrest back on Emmanuel Macron. "There were millions of people in the street in a completely peaceful, joyful and determined way and he has not heard anything. Now, his radicalism refers to a form of radicalism in the street," she said.

For their part, unions are also hoping for a broadening of the movement, counting in particular on sectoral strikes such as in the energy sector, along with the mobilization of youth.

"We cannot prohibit people from demonstrating. We need the youth to mobilize more massively," said French trade unionist Philippe Martinez, adding that Emmanuel Macron has not heard the "warnings" of the unions.

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FOCUS: Russia-Ukraine War

The Real Purpose Of The Drone Strikes Inside Russia? A Decoy For Ukraine's Counterattack

Putin is hesitant to mobilize troops for political reasons. And the Ukrainian military command is well aware that the key to a successful offensive lies in creating new front lines, where Russia will have to relocate troops from Ukraine and thus weaken the existing front.

The Real Purpose Of The Drone Strikes Inside Russia? A Decoy For Ukraine's Counterattack

Police officers stand in front of an apartment block hit by a drone in Moscow.

Anna Akage

This article was updated at 8 p.m. local time May 31 with reports of new strikes inside Russia

-Analysis-

On the night of May 30, military drones attacked the Russian capital. There were no casualties – just broken windows and minor damage to homes. Ukraine claims it had nothing to do with the attack, and it is instead the frenzied artificial intelligence of military machines that do not understand why they are sent to Kyiv.

While the Ukrainian president’s office jokes that someone in Russia has again been smoking somewhere they shouldn’t, analysts are placing bets on the real reasons for the Moscow strikes. Many believe that Kyiv's real military target can by no means be the capital of Russia itself: it is too far from the front and too well defended – and strikes on Russia, at least with Western weapons, run counter to Ukraine’s agreements with allies, who have said that their weapons cannot be used to attack inside Russia.

Eight apartment buildings, four homes, a school and two administrative buildings were damaged during the shelling in Shebekino, a village in the border region of Belgorod, its governor said, as the oblast increasingly becomes a hotbed of straying violence.

On Wednesday, new reports of a “massive” shelling attack inside Russia's borders that injured at least four people in Belgorod and a drone sparked a fire at an oil refinery further south.

If the goal is not directly military, maybe it is psychological: to scare the residents of the capital, who live in a parallel reality and have no idea how life feels for Ukrainian civilians. Forcing people to live with this reality could push the Kremlin to retreat, or at least make concessions and negotiate with Kyiv. If neither sanctions nor the elite could sober Vladimir Putin up, could angry Muscovites?

But neither Russia's military command nor its political leadership depends on the opinion of citizens. And there are enough special forces in Moscow to crush any mass protest.

Laying bare Russian President Vladimir Putin’s inability to guarantee his country's security, in front of Russia’s remaining international partners or among the country’s elites, is also an unlikely goal. The Russian army has already seen such embarrassing failures that a few drone strikes on the Kremlin can’t possibly change how Putin is seen as a leader, or Russia as a state. So why would Kyiv launch attacks on Moscow?

Let's go back to the date of the shelling: May 29 is Kyiv Day, a holiday in the Ukrainian capital. It was also the 16th attack on Kyiv in May alone, unprecedented in its scale, even compared to the winter months when Russia had still hoped to cut off Ukrainian electricity and leave Kyiv residents, or even the whole country, freezing in the dark.

The backdrop: the Ukrainian counter-offensive to liberate the occupied territories, which is in the works, if not already launched.

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