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Transatlantic Competition: US Economy Finds New Spark Against Divided Euro Zone

In the competition between world's top economies, Germany continues to carry Europe and the U.S. starts to roar back to life

US factory worker

Germany's current economic upswing is lasting longer than expected. Although economists warned last year that German industrial output would drop sharply because of weaker demand from abroad, it hasn't happened yet. In November, industrial output increased significantly – by more than five percent over the previous month.

Even though a few major contracts are distorting this picture, German export-driven expansion seems to be continuing. The demand for German cars and machinery has increased sharply in recent months, and orders from abroad increased by 8.2 percent last November. The order books of major industrial firms are full enough for Carnsten Brzeski, an expert in German markets at ING, to speculate that "the influx of new orders in the coming months might even lead to bottlenecks in production."

The entire Euro zone is looking forward to a good economic year and the region's economic mood improved more than expected in December. In the past month, the European Commission's economic climate index has reached its highest level since late 2007. This increase can be attributed to the balances of industrial enterprises in Germany, which are expected to increase in the coming months.

The economic mood has improved most significantly in Germany, France and Italy. However, the peripheral economies of Spain and Greece continue to deteriorate, and European consumers remain more skeptical than businesses, with the consumer confidence index dropping since November.

On the other side of the Atlantic, the economy appears to be developing more quickly than expected. In the past few weeks, a rolling series of positive indicators has surprised economic experts. The profits of U.S. companies are on a steady upswing, with many beginning to invest again. Private consumption increased in the fourth quarter, leading to surprisingly strong Christmas sales for U.S. retailers. As a result, many economists want to revise their growth forecasts to put the U.S. on top.

Commerzbank has shared its revised US forecast with Die Welt. Previously, the bank's experts predicted US growth of three percent for 2011. In light of the recent positive news, analysts now expect the American economy to grow by four percent this year. This prediction differs from the general consensus, as the majority of economists are expecting the U.S. economy to increase by just below three percent in 2011. "The U.S. economy's hand brake has been loosened, and the wagon is rolling," says Joerg Kraemer, chief economist at Commerzbank. "Even the labor market seems to be picking up. The number of new applications for unemployment benefits is already dropping."

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The Unsustainable Future Of Fish Farming — On Vivid Display In Turkish Waters

Currently, 60% of Turkey's fish currently comes from cultivation, also known as fish farming, compared to just 10% two decades ago. The short-sightedness of this shift risks eliminating fishing output from both the farms and the open seas along Turkey's 5,200 miles of coastline.

Photograph of two fishermen throwing a net into the Tigris river in Turkey.

Traditional fishermen on the Tigris river, Turkey.

Dûrzan Cîrano/Wikimeidia
İrfan Donat

ISTANBUL — Turkey's annual fish production includes 515,000 tons from cultivation and 335,000 tons came from fishing in open waters. In other words, 60% of Turkey's fish currently comes from cultivation, also known as fish farming.

It's a radical shift from just 20 years ago when some 600,000 tons, or 90% of the total output, came from fishing. Now, researchers are warning the current system dominated by fish farming is ultimately unsustainable in the country with 8,333 kilometers (5,177 miles) long.

Professor Mustafa Sarı from the Maritime Studies Faculty of Bandırma 17 Eylül University believes urgent action is needed: “Why were we getting 600,000 tons of fish from the seas in the 2000’s and only 300,000 now? Where did the other 300,000 tons of fish go?”

Professor Sarı is challenging the argument from certain sectors of the industry that cultivation is the more sustainable approach. “Now we are feeding the fish that we cultivate at the farms with the fish that we catch from nature," he explained. "The fish types that we cultivate at the farms are sea bass, sea bram, trout and salmon, which are fed with artificial feed produced at fish-feed factories. All of these fish-feeds must have a significant amount of fish flour and fish oil in them.”

That fish flour and fish oil inevitably must come from the sea. "We have to get them from natural sources. We need to catch 5.7 kilogram of fish from the seas in order to cultivate a sea bream of 1 kg," Sarı said. "Therefore, we are feeding the fish to the fish. We cannot cultivate fish at the farms if the fish in nature becomes extinct. The natural fish need to be protected. The consequences would be severe if the current policy is continued.”

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