-Analysis-
PARIS — There was a time when the Davos Forum in the Swiss Alps was about economic globalization, new lands of industrial conquest and innovation. Sign of the times, the geopolitical risk is on everyone’s mind this year — which is not surprising when major wars are underway in Ukraine and the Middle East and cargo ships are being targeted in the Red Sea.
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French President Emmanuel Macron went to Davos on January 17, both promoting France and worrying about the fragmentation of the world. At the same time, he lent his support to an idea that is gradually gaining ground: that of joint financing of European defense, by the EU bloc’s 27 countries.
An idea catching on
The idea is in the air: European Commissioner Thierry Breton, whose remit includes defense, launched it earlier this month at a meeting with members of the European Parliament. He proposed the creation of a €100 billion European fund, designed to develop the continent’s defense industries, and common infrastructures, including the bold suggestion of a common aircraft carrier for all 27.
Breton’s proposal immediately received the support of an important country: Poland, which has just changed government with the election of the liberal Donald Tusk. Poland is the country that invests the most in its defense, aiming for 4% of GDP, twice that of France; it has signed colossal arms purchase contracts, including 1,000 tanks from South Korea.
Europe has become aware of its deep vulnerabilities and of its industrial shortcomings.
Estonia, another country in the former Soviet sphere of influence, has also backed the idea of issuing Eurobonds that would consist of a common European loan to build up the defense industry and to help Ukraine.
Europe faces its weaknesses
The idea will probably only be formalized after the European elections in June, depending on the results. But it is a sign of the cultural revolution that has taken place in Europe since Russia invaded Ukraine nearly two years ago. Europe has become aware of its deep vulnerabilities and of its industrial shortcomings.
The obstacles to achieving this are twofold. Firstly, there has to be a political majority in Europe to support such a project after the European elections; in other words, the weight of the far right must not be decisive; secondly, the “27” have to agree to joint borrowing for defense, as was done for the post-COVID recovery plan. But at the time a consensus was not easily reached.
On Wednesday, Emmanuel Macron made it clear that in the event of a deadlock, France would propose “enhanced cooperation,” meaning countries would be able to act without waiting for everyone to agree.
The urgency is due to the unspoken theme of this debate: the possible return of Donald Trump to the White House after the November 5 election. Europe must learn to rely on itself. That includes a common defense. European defense is an old sea serpent that has never seen the light of day: it’s now, or never.
