Feasibility doubts

In any case, for the time being the aspiration remains wishful thinking, as the details of the future currency's form are still very unclear. "It's a question we need to discuss," said Naledi Pandor, South Africa's head of diplomacy. "I don't think we can just assume that this idea will work, because the economic issues are complicated, and we have to consider all the countries well." The South African Central Bank has also expressed doubts about the feasibility of the project.

At present, it is unlikely that each country will agree to abandon its own monetary policy in favor of a common central bank, "as their systems are very different", says William Gumede, Professor at the University of the Witwatersrand in Johannesburg.

Trust in the institution or countries behind a currency is a crucial factor.

"China has a state-controlled central bank, as does Russia, while South Africa, Brazil and India have independent central banks: so their monetary policies are very different. And there's also the matter of China's willingness to relinquish control over its own currency."

BRICS institutions' reliability is also a sticking point: "Trust in the institution or countries behind a currency is a crucial factor, especially for a reserve currency," explains Martin Cameron, Director of the Trade Research Advisory at South Africa's North West University. "So even if the BRICS commit to this, completing transactions will probably be a challenge, because in South Africa, for example, the government can't force companies to use this currency."

Not to mention that the question of whether "China will try to manipulate this currency for its own personal gain" will be on everyone’s mind.

Alternative payment systems

"I don't think we'll choose a Euro-type model," says Zongyuan Zoe Liu, especially given the lack of "monetary stability in several countries in the past". Other models are also being considered, such as a currency backed by a raw material like gold, or the creation of a basket of currencies, provided an agreement can be reached on the weight criteria for each.

Martin Cameron has little faith in the hope that this common currency will increase the still underdeveloped trade between the BRICS: "Instead, we need to look at our productivity: what do we choose to produce, and is there something that our trading partners need?" he says.

I don't rule out the possibility of this currency seeing the light of day.

In the meantime, other paths to independence from the dollar are being explored, including more trade in local currencies: since the beginning of the year, China has largely switched to the yuan to pay for its raw materials purchases from Russia, and Brazil intends to follow suit. These changes go hand in hand with the development of alternative payment systems to the SWIFT model.

The possibility of expanding the group to include countries such as Saudi Arabia, now under consideration, could also reframe the situation. To those who doubt the viability of a common currency, Zongyuan Zoe Liu points out: "Many didn't think that the BRICS would have the resources and political coherence to establish the New Development Bank, and yet they did, so I don't rule out the possibility of this currency seeing the light of day, even if I have serious doubts about the development speed of such a project."