According to Turkey, to overcome this standoff, Sweden would have had to give in on its asylum laws.
Exploiting a crisis
Once again, there is always a radical ready to take advantage of a crisis to aggravate it. Rasmus Paludan, leader of a Danish far-right party and also a Danish citizen, participated in a demonstration this week in front of the Turkish embassy in Stockholm — and he burned a Koran.
The first consequence is that Sweden will not be able to join NATO in the near future.
This gesture, which is hardly relevant in the context of Sweden's membership in NATO, has transformed the nature of the crisis. It has become yet another version of the freedom of expression versus blasphemy debate, which has a way of leading to a dead end.
Paradoxically, the far-right leader's gesture was a gift to Erdogan. The Turkish leader was thus able to drape himself in the dignity of the defender of Islam, a status that is beneficial in the midst of an election campaign. Symbols have their importance, especially in the year of the centenary of the proclamation of the Republic by Kamal Ataturk, on the ruins of the Ottoman Empire.
The first consequence is that Sweden will not be able to join NATO in the near future. Turkey has indicated that it will not give its green light under these conditions, despite all other members of the Alliance having given their agreement.
A familiar role
This matter will certainly not be resolved before the Turkish elections in May. In the context of an economic crisis, Erdogan is playing a delicate game, and he will not make any concessions until then. All the more so as the Turkish president values his good relations with Putin.
Finland, the other candidate that had submitted its application to NATO at the same time as Sweden, could therefore join the organization alone, at first. This does not change much in the strategic equation in this part of Europe, but it prevents NATO from presenting a united front against Vladimir Putin.
Once again, Erdogan is playing his part alone, without worrying about his supposed NATO allies. He is used to disruption, so this will come as no surprise to anyone.
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