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Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi at the Iranian parliament in Tehran.
Axis of resistance
Through these actions, the Houthis aim to affirm their affiliation with the "axis of resistance," a term used by movements opposed to Israel and linked to Iran. This axis includes Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Lebanese Hezbollah, pro-Syrian factions, and Iraqi Shia militias.
An escalation is at play.
The Houthis, a Yemeni military-religious organization related to Shia Islam, has been waging war for nearly a decade. Yemen devolved into a civil war following the Arab Spring of 2011, a war that was internationalized with the entry of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates into the conflict. While the war has largely subsided, the Houthis seem clearly unwilling to abandon their regional role.
There is indeed an escalation at play, although the extent of the Houthis' intentions — and through them, Iran's intentions — remains uncertain.
The USS Carney transits the Suez Canal, October 18, 2023
Mc2 Aaron Lau/Planetpix/Planet Pix via ZUMA
A thin line
Since October 7 and the U.S. deployment in the region, Iran and its allies have cautiously shown solidarity with Hamas without crossing certain lines in the sand. Whether it is Hezbollah's actions in southern Lebanon, Iraqi Shia attacks on U.S. bases, or Houthis naval incursions, nothing so far has been committed that is irreparable — that is, nothing that would warrant a major response from the U.S.
Indeed, the U.S. has thus limited itself to merely countering the Houthis in the Red Sea, or striking Iranian interests in Syria. But a real act of aggression, such as a direct and deadly strike on a U.S. ship in the Red Sea, could set off an uncontrollable chain of events. The Americans have made it clear from the beginning that Iranian soil will not be considered off limits.
The theater of operations in the Red Sea thus needs close monitoring to gauge Iran's true intentions: whether it's mere pro-Hamas posturing or a genuine war escalation.
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- The Red Sea Attack Shows Two Scenarios For How The Gaza War Goes Global ›
