-Analysis-
PARIS — What does the world look like from ZhongNanhai, the seat of Chinese Communist power, near Beijing’s Forbidden City, where China’s emperors once lived? What vision of France and the world is Chinese President Xi Jinping bringing with him on his two-day visit, his first to Europe in five years?
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It’s always useful to put oneself in the other person’s shoes. It allows us to grasp what’s at stake in this visit from the Chinese point of view, all the unspoken aspects of this celebration — far from being festive — of the 60th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between the France of Charles de Gaulle and the China of Mao Zedong.
From Beijing’s point of view, the main enemy is the United States, the only country with which China can measure itself. The United States, which imposes technological sanctions on China, forges military alliances in the Asia-Pacific and protects Taiwan, the rebel island. Everything China does on the international stage is conditioned by this confrontation with Washington, which Beijing even believes could one day lead to war.
New cold war
The special attention reserved for France should be interpreted within the context of the new Cold War. As in 1964 under then President Charles de Gaulle, France is still perceived by Beijing as a country a little more independent from Washington than the others.
French President Emmanuel Macron‘s statements on strategic autonomy, or more bluntly on the risk of “vassalizing” Europe, are well received in Beijing.
That being said, no one is easily fooled. China knows the limits of this independence in the Western context. And France does not see China as an ally, but as a “strategic rival,” as the saying goes; a rival nonetheless unavoidable.
Macron told La Tribune Dimanche on May 5: “I’m not suggesting that we distance ourselves from China,” which is enough to make Beijing happy, even if it doesn’t rule out trade tensions.
A broader question
And then there’s Ukraine, which is, in fact, the most pressing issue. During his visit to Beijing last year, Macron asked Xi to urge Russian President Vladimir Putin to end to the war in Ukraine. He did not succeed. Although China does not deliver weapons to Russia, it has become its economic lifeline. The U.S. has sanctioned Chinese companies accused of delivering weapons components to Russia.
Macron is likely to be disappointed once again.
Once again, the French president is going to plead with his Chinese counterpart to use his influence with Putin. But Macron is likely to be disappointed once again, especially just a few months away from an American election that could change the global balance of power. Putin is expected in Beijing in two weeks’ time, and there will surely be more proclamations of friendship than pressure.
The question is much broader, and it brings us back to the world as seen from Zhongnanhai. Beijing and Moscow share at least one common point: they challenge the American order. Xi is dealing tactfully with the Europeans, but he will not give up his agenda, which does not coincide with that of France. That does not preclude smiles during the visit, but it does limit its scope.
