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Geopolitics

It's A Golden Era For Russia-Turkey Relations — Just Look At The Numbers

On the diplomatic and political level, no world leader speaks more regularly with Vladimir Putin than his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. But the growing closeness of Russia and Turkey can also be measured in the economic data. And the 2022 numbers are stunning.

Photo of Erdogan and Putin walking out of a door

Erdogan and Putin last summer in Sochi, Russia

Vyacheslav Prokofyev/TASS via ZUMA
Aytug Özçolak

-Analysis-

ISTANBUL — As Russia has become increasingly isolated since the invasion of Ukraine, the virtual pariah state has drawn notably closer to one of its remaining partners: Turkey.

Ankara has committed billions of dollars to buy the Russian S-400 surface-to-air missile system, and contracted to Russia to build Turkey's first nuclear power plant. The countries’ foreign policies are also becoming increasingly aligned.

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But the depth of this relationship goes much further. Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan speaks to Russian President Vladimir Putinmore than any other leader: 16 times in 2022, and 11 times in 2021. Erdoğan has visited Russia 14 times since 2016, compared to his 10 visits to the U.S. in the same time period (half of which were in 2016 and 2017).

But no less important is the way the two countries are increasingly tied together by commerce.


In 2015, China was the number one source of exports to Turkey, having shipped $24.8 billion of goods to Turkey that year, followed by Germany at $21.3 billion and Russia at $20.3 billion.

This ranking remained unchanged for the next three years, until Russia took a narrow lead in 2018 and 2019. China returned to the top in 2020 and 2021, but in 2022, Russia took first place by a long shot: $54.3 billion.

Russian exports rising

Let’s look at the three countries Turkey has bought the most exports from:

Russian exports to Turkey have increased by nearly 300% in the past eight years, while exports from China increase by just 50% and exports from Germany remained flat.

Let’s take a look at companies founded in Turkey with Russian capital or shareholders. Twenty-seven such companies companies were founded in 2015. In 2022, that number was 140, bringing Russia from seventh to first place in this category.

Graph of leading exporters to Turkey

A graph illustrating the top three sources of imports to Turkey since 2015 --- China, Germany and Russia --- and showing a sharp increase in Russian imports to Turkey since 2018.

Turkey buys more exports from China (blue), Germany (yellow) and, increasingly, Russia (green).

Source: Turkish Statistical Institute/TÜİK data Graphic: Diken

Russian-backed Turkish companies

Looking at the number of foreign-backed companies founded in Turkey over the same period, Russia didn't crack the top three for seven years until sharply rising to first place in 2022. The number of Russian-backed corporations increased five-fold last year compared to 2021.

In 2015, there were 99 limited companies founded in Turkey with Russian shareholders, compared to 1,223 companies founded in 2022. Russia climbed to second place from ninth in 2015 — but those numbers barely shifted until a sudden jump in 2022.

After struggling to make the top 10 for seven years, Russia hit number two in 2022. The number of limited companies founded by Russians increased by nearly eight times in 2022 when compared to the previous year. It's also interesting to note that Iran has been at number one for the past four years.

Finally, let’s check the real estate market. Previously, people from Middle Eastern countries were the top buyers of housing in Turkey — in particular Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Iran. But that changed in 2022, when there were more than twice as many Russian buyers as Iranians.

Russians bought three times as many properties in Turkey in 2022 compared to the previous year. After taking first or second place for years, Iraqis are now in third place while Iranians, among the top five since 2015, are sitting in second, behind Russia.

Graph illustrating the increase in Russian-backed companies started in Turkey, showing Russia gaining from seventh place in 2015 to first place in 2022.

Foreign investment by country of Turkish companies. Almanya is Germany; BAE is the United Arab Emirates.

Source: Turkish Statistical Institute/TÜİK data Graphic: Diken

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Geopolitics

Mongolian Soldiers Accuse The Military Of Using “Torture” To Maintain Discipline

Illegal punishment through the use of torture is increasingly common in Mongolia’s military, where 44 soldiers have died and 468 violations have been reported in the last decade, according to a 2022 report. Many former soldiers have been physically abused and harassed. After hearing recent reports of torture, the commission has begun training mental health professionals to serve in the military to help.

Image of a man working at a gas station

Bayartsogt Jargalsaikhan cannot hold down a steady job after being tortured while serving in the military. He now works at a gas station in Ulaanbaatar.

URANCHIMEG TSOGKHUU, GPJ MONGOLIA
Uranchimeg Tsogkhuu

ZUUNBAYAN — Bayartsogt Jargalsaikhan had been guarding the weapons warehouse since midnight in the January freeze, and he was cold. Five minutes before his shift ended, he went inside to warm up.

That fateful decision in 2017 would get Bayartsogt and his fellow soldiers tortured by their commanding officer, leaving him permanently disabled and making him one more statistic in Mongolia’s long history of human rights violations inside the military.

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