Taiwan Elections: A Victory Of The Frontrunner Will Trigger Beijing

-Analysis-

There’s just one question the rest of the world is asking about Saturday’s elections on the island of Taiwan: Will there be war, or not? This is obviously important, but it may not be the best or only way to think about the Taiwanese election.

Firstly, because like all people who vote, the citizens of Taiwan have their daily problems, like cost of living and affordable housing, that condition their choices at the voting booth as much as or perhaps more than the elephant in the room: China.

In fact, according to opinion polls, the majority of Taiwanese favor a status quo, meaning neither independence, nor reunification. This is the position of the presidential candidates : William Lai, the outgoing vice-president, secretly dreams of independence, but knows full well that it would mean war with Beijing ; while Hou Yu-hih, the candidate of the Kuomintang, the main opposition party, advocates for peaceful relations with China, without going as far as reunification, as the Taiwanese would not follow.

Tense electoral climate

This national tendency toward moderation, or pragmatism, rules out the first reason that could provoke war : if Taipei proclaimed independence for this island, which is de facto, but not de jure ; and which, above all, is recognized by only a handful of nations.

Of course, this doesn’t guarantee that there won’t be a war — that would be too simple. We can’t rule out an air or naval incident leading to an uncontrolled escalation in an over-armed region. Or an opportunity effect if, for example, the United States, Taiwan’s protector, finds itself plunged into political confusion, as after the 2020 election, creating the temptation of a military adventure for Beijing.

The verbal escalation is set to intensify

Saturday’s election is bound to create tensions, if the favorite, William Lai, candidate of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), wins. In a rather crude and possibly counter-productive interference, Beijing warned the Taiwanese this week against voting for the DPP.

Troubled waters

The verbal escalation is set to intensify, with the announcement of a visit to Taipei in the coming days of a delegation of former U.S. officials, Democrats and Republicans, sent by the White House, as a gesture of political support. But the virulence of the communiqués doesn’t mean war.

Can China remain silent if the candidate it opposes winds up winning ? A victory for the DPP would indeed be seen as defeat for Beijing, and even a humiliation for Xi Jinping, who repeated in his New Year’s message that the reunification was “inevitable.”

We can therefore expect strong reactions, no doubt a deployment of planes and ships with little regard for the island’s sovereignty. Taiwan is used to this.

The real question is how Beijing, Taipei and Washington will deal with this fever spike. The recent resumption of military dialogue between Chinese and Americans, a positive spin-off of the Xi-Biden summit in San Francisco in November, bodes well for the future. At least in the short term.

Taiwan has learned to live in these troubled waters: this is what the electorates expect from its leaders, reasonable risk management within reach of the flame of the Chinese dragon.