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Geopolitics

How Blocking Sweden's NATO Bid Plays Right Into Erdogan's Election Campaign

Turkey's objections to Swedish membership of NATO may mean that Finland joins first. But as he approaches his highly contested reelection bid at home, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is ready to use the issue to his advantage.

How Blocking Sweden's NATO Bid Plays Right Into Erdogan's Election Campaign

January 11, 2023, Ankara (Turkey): Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan at the International Conference of the Board of Grievances on January 11.

Turkish Presidency / APA Images via ZUMA Press Wire
Pierre Haski

-Analysis-

PARIS — This story has all the key elements of our age: the backdrop of the war in Ukraine, the excessive ambitions of an autocrat, the opportunism of a right-wing demagogue, Islamophobia... And at the end, a country, Sweden, whose NATO membership, which should have been only a formality, has been blocked.

Last spring, under the shock of the invasion of Ukraine by Vladimir Putin's Russia, Sweden and Finland, two neutral countries in northern Europe, decided to apply for membership in NATO. For Sweden, this is a major turning point: the kingdom’s neutrality had lasted more than 150 years.

Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan raised objections. It demanded that Sweden stop sheltering Kurdish opponents in its country. This has nothing to do with NATO or Ukraine, but everything to do with Erdogan's electoral agenda, as he campaigns for the Turkish presidential elections next May.


According to Turkey, to overcome this standoff, Sweden would have had to give in on its asylum laws.

Exploiting a crisis

Once again, there is always a radical ready to take advantage of a crisis to aggravate it. Rasmus Paludan, leader of a Danish far-right party and also a Danish citizen, participated in a demonstration this week in front of the Turkish embassy in Stockholm — and he burned a Koran.

The first consequence is that Sweden will not be able to join NATO in the near future.

This gesture, which is hardly relevant in the context of Sweden's membership in NATO, has transformed the nature of the crisis. It has become yet another version of the freedom of expression versus blasphemy debate, which has a way of leading to a dead end.

Paradoxically, the far-right leader's gesture was a gift to Erdogan. The Turkish leader was thus able to drape himself in the dignity of the defender of Islam, a status that is beneficial in the midst of an election campaign. Symbols have their importance, especially in the year of the centenary of the proclamation of the Republic by Kamal Ataturk, on the ruins of the Ottoman Empire.

The first consequence is that Sweden will not be able to join NATO in the near future. Turkey has indicated that it will not give its green light under these conditions, despite all other members of the Alliance having given their agreement.

A familiar role

This matter will certainly not be resolved before the Turkish elections in May. In the context of an economic crisis, Erdogan is playing a delicate game, and he will not make any concessions until then. All the more so as the Turkish president values his good relations with Putin.

Finland, the other candidate that had submitted its application to NATO at the same time as Sweden, could therefore join the organization alone, at first. This does not change much in the strategic equation in this part of Europe, but it prevents NATO from presenting a united front against Vladimir Putin.

Once again, Erdogan is playing his part alone, without worrying about his supposed NATO allies. He is used to disruption, so this will come as no surprise to anyone.

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FOCUS: Israel-Palestine War

Why Yemen May Be The Real Trigger Risk For Middle East Escalation

The Iran-backed Yemeni rebel group Houthis have seized a vessel in the Red Sea’s shipping route and took the ship’s 25 crew members hostage. It’s just the latest sign that the spillover from Gaza may arrive first from the south.

Houthi supporters in Sanaa, Yemen, gather during a rally to show support to Palestinian people in Gaza on October 18, 2023.

Houthi supporters in Sanaa, Yemen, gather during a rally to show support to Palestinian people in Gaza on October 18, 2023.

Elias Kassem

-Analysis-

Since the war against Hamas exploded last month in Gaza, international diplomats and war-game analysts have been looking at the map of the Middle East to gauge if and where the conflict might escalate.

Though much of the attention has been on Lebanon-based Hezbollah across Israel’s northern border, it's best right now to look south instead.

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The Iranian-backed rebels in Yemen, known as Houthis, have escalated their attacks on Israel and its interests, fueling already mounting concerns that the war in Gaza could spill over into a regional conflict.

On Sunday, the rebels said they seized a cargo vessel in the Red Sea crucial shipping route, south of Israel, and took the ship’s 25 crew members hostage.

The escalation by the Houthis and other Iranian-backed militias in the region, including missile attacks by Hezbollah on northern Israel have increased concerns the war between Israel and the Palestinian militants in Gaza could spread across the region, with even more explosive global consequences.

Analysts say the latest Houthi move aims to add more pressure on Israel and its closest ally, the U.S., as the war in Gaza continues unabated. They also say that as the situation becomesincreasingly dire in the Palestinian enclave, Iran may be left with no choice but to escalate tensions through its proxies in the region.

Sunday’s seizure came hours after the group threatened to target Israel-linked vessels off Yemen, as part of their response to the war in Gaza. The rebels have also launched barrages of missiles and explosive-laden drones on Israel since the war began on Oct. 7.

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