Twisted history
Ukraine’s accession to NATO is not a new issue. In 2008, France and Germany – at the time led by French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel – fought hard at the NATO summit in Bucharest to block Ukraine's entry. Paris and Berlin feared provoking Moscow. The Bush administration was in favor. The result was an ill-judged decision: yes to membership, but one day... When? It wasn't said.
It’s either too late or too soon. Other solutions must therefore be found: they will undoubtedly take the form of security guarantees which, although not those of Article 5 of the Atlantic Charter, will satisfy Ukraine and act as a sufficient deterrent.
French President Emmanuel Macron spoke out in favor of "tangible and credible" security guarantees, something halfway between the Israeli option – i.e., U.S. assurances and aid to the Jewish state – and full NATO membership. The President of the European Commission, Ursula Von der Leyen, also spoke of "guarantees from like-minded states."

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Volodymyr Zelensky talk at the European Political Community Summit in Moldova
© Kay Nietfeld / ZUMA
Eastern Flank
Such guarantees can only come from states that have the means and the credibility to do so. The United States, the United Kingdom and France, three nuclear powers and permanent members of the UN Security Council, stand out, as does Germany, the continent's leading economic power. A country on NATO's "eastern flank" will also be involved, no doubt Poland, which is investing massively in defense.
But what are such state commitments really worth? Ukraine has had a sad experience of this: in 1994, it received such assurances of non-aggression in the "Budapest Memorandum," signed in exchange for its renunciation of Soviet nuclear weapons. Among the signatories was Russia, and the rest is history...
There are still six weeks to go before the Vilnius summit to define an acceptable solution for Zelensky, whose main argument to impose himself is always the same: Ukraine is fighting for you. Indeed, this is the "blood money" that explains NATO’s current sense of urgency.
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