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Geopolitics

Russia, U.S. And China All Know: Ukraine's Fate Will Define The World Of Tomorrow

One year since Russia's invasion, the global stakes of the war in Ukraine have come more fully into focus. It's a battle over fundamental questions of sovereignty and democracy, but also the very meaning of power.

Photo of Vladimir Putin shaking hands with head of Chinese diplomacy Wang Yi at the Kremlin

Russian President Vladimir Putin greets head of Chinese diplomacy Wang Yi at the Kremlin on Wednesday

Anton Novoderezhkin/TASS via ZUMA
Pierre Haski

-Analysis-

PARIS — When we talk about the state of the world during the time of war in Ukraine, the word that comes up most often is "fragmented." This is of course a euphemism, as we have seen in the deep divisions on display this past week.

As if they had consulted each other, Vladimir Putin and Joe Biden have doubled down on their rivalry: Putin, by brutally attacking the West, the root of all evil – and Biden, by showing his total commitment to Ukraine in the face of Russian aggression.

But the world is not as bipolar as it was during the Cold War. China has burst onto the scene this anniversary week, with the visit of head Chinese diplomat Wang Yi to Munich and Moscow. On Wednesday, standing beside Putin, he spoke of a “rock solid” relationship between the two countries, without crossing the line into support of the Russian war.


Alongside this ballet of the three giants, Europe is relatively invisible, and the rest of the world, an irritated witness. What does this tell us? The outcome of the war will define the world of tomorrow, which helps explain the scale of the conflict.

Putin's sphere of influence 

Putin launched his army into Ukraine hoping to recreate a “sphere of influence.” The failed invasion has become a test of the balance of power between a Russia with imperial dreams, and a West reinvigorated by the challenge to its borders.

If Putin wins in Ukraine, the whole region is threatened – starting with small ex-Soviet Moldova, which has felt increasingly uneasy of late. Conflicts that have been "frozen" for years in Moldova, Georgia and other precarious situations in the Caucasus and Central Asia would also be affected.

The Americans support Ukraine, but really have China on their minds.

For the U.S., this has become a full-scale test of the nation's credibility after the debacle in Kabul in August 2021 – and in the middle, the growing confrontation with China. As one European diplomat confided, the Americans support Ukraine, but really have China on their minds.

photo of Graves of fallen Ukrainian soldiers in Kyiv surrounded by flags

Graves of fallen Ukrainian soldiers in Kyiv

Dominika Zarzycka/SOPA Images via ZUMA

Two powers challenge the West

For the past year, the West has been holding out hope for any sign of distancing between China and Russia, as if waiting for the Messiah. It hasn't happened yet — meanwhile, Chinese propaganda echoes Russian messaging non-stop.

The world would be different if China had not engaged in this conflict, or even, in a worst-case scenario, opened a second front in Taiwan. U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken has accused China of preparing to deliver arms to Russia, which Beijing has denied. China now says it will present a peace plan, which has been met with immense skepticism.

The reality of this world is that we have two powers who want to challenge Western dominance. What this war has revealed is that much of the world shares this goal, and the feeling that the West has been abusing its powerful position.

Accepting "might makes right" as the rule in geopolitics would force us to regress to the world of the past, when empires were formed through conquest. This is why Ukraine has become a symbol that cannot fall.

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FOCUS: Russia-Ukraine War

Alexandroupoli, How The Ukraine War Made This Sleepy Greek Port A Geopolitical Hub

Once neglected, this small port in Thrace, northeastern Greece, has become a strategic hub for transporting men and arms to the shores of the Black Sea. Propelled by ambitious infrastructure and gas projects, the region dreams of becoming an alternative to the Bosphorus strait.

Alexandroupoli, How The Ukraine War Made This Sleepy Greek Port A Geopolitical Hub

The U.S. military processing military equipment in the port of Alexandroupoli.

Basile Dekonink

ALEXANDROUPOLI — Looks like there's a traffic jam in the port of Alexandroupoli.

Lined up in tight rows on the quay reserved for military activities, hundreds of vehicles — mostly light armored vehicles — are piled up under the sun. Moored at the pier, the "USNS Brittin," an impressive 290-meter roll-off cargo ship flying the flag of the U.S. Navy, is about to set sail. But what is all this gear doing in this remote corner of the sea in Thrace, in the far northeast of Greece?

Of all the geopolitical upheavals caused by the Russian offensive of Feb. 24 2022, Alexandroupoli is perhaps the most surprising. Once isolated and neglected, this modest port in the Eastern Mediterranean, mainly known for its maritime connection to the nearby island of Samothrace, is being revived.

Diplomats of all kinds are flocking there, investors are pouring in, and above all, military ships are arriving at increasingly regular intervals. The capital of the province of Evros has become, in the midst of the war in Ukraine, a hub for transporting arms and men to the shores of the Black Sea.

“If you look north from Alexandroupoli, along the Evros River, you can see a corridor. A corridor for trade, for the transport of goods and people to the heart of the Balkans and, a little further, to Ukraine," explains the port's CEO, Konstantinos Chatzikonstantinou, from his office right on the docks. According to him, the sudden interest in this small town of 70,000 inhabitants is explained by "geography, geography, and… geography.”

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