Iron fist, expanding reach

Such speculation of Kadyrov’s future have amplified in the Russian media since the crackdown last month on the family of Saidi Yangulbayev, a former member of the Chechen Supreme Court. Chechen police traveled to Nizhny Novgorod in Russian territory to apprehend Yangulbayev's wife to bring her back to Chechnya. Meanwhile, the rest of the family — husband, daughter and sons — fled abroad fearing for their lives. Chechen fighters and Kadyrov personally declared blood vengeance on Yangulbayev's entire family in response to the human rights activities of Yangulbayev's eldest sons and criticism of the Kadyrov regime.

Kadyrov has shown his willingness to expand his territorial powers.

The fact that the Kremlin turned a blind eye to what happened, despite the fact that the kidnapping took place on the Russian territory, is perhaps the most blatant exhibition of Kadyrov’s sway throughout the Russian Federation. In the days following the kidnapping and the escalation of the military crisis on the Ukrainian-Russian border, Kadyrov's name began to get more Russian media attention — and he issued several statements of his own, directed at the Ukrainian president, and to Russian journalists investigating human rights abuses in Chechnya (particularly those of the LGBTQ community).In early February a Novaya Gazeta journalist, whom Kadyrov had declared a terrorist and an enemy of Chechnya, had to leave Russia.

Father’s son

Kadyrov has been acquiring this power since 2005 when he took over Chechnya after his father’s death. During the first Chechen war (1994 - 1996), he had fought together with his father on the side of Chechen separatists against the Russian army. But in 1999 they both left for Russia because of the growing Wahhabist movement in Chechnya. In the second Chechen war (1999 - 2000), he was already responsible for conducting special operations of the Russian army on the territory of Chechnya.

Kadyrov is now the absolute ruler of the republic. Behind him stands all the law enforcement agencies and the special unit of Chechen fighters that he personally assembled. It is impossible to even compare Lukashenko's autocracy and his measures for retaining power with the terror that Kadyrov is waging in Chechnya: this is the military power of a dictator backed by friendship with the Russian president, but that doesn’t depend on the Kremlin.

Moreover, Russian-Chechen relations are based on the understanding that it is Kadyrov who guarantees peace, and for Russian citizens peace with Chechnya is more important than peace in Belarus or even Ukraine. For Russians, the war in Chechnya is comparable in its gravity and losses only to the war in Afghanistan a generation earlier.

Kadyrov is in many ways suitable for the continuation of Russia's policy, post-Putin.

The chatter about succession is also simply a reminder that Putin is not immortal after all, he is already 69, and those who are interested in preserving the current division of power and businesses are certainly thinking about who will come after him.

Standing up to America

Late last month, against the background of all the events taking place around Russia and Ukraine, Kadyrov decided to address the possibility of his future presidency in Russia, Kadyrov writing in his Telegram channel. "I always say that I don't see myself in any federal post, not as president, not as a minister, and so on. My place is here, in the Chechen Republic, and I'm not going anywhere from here!". But his denial is also an acknowledgment that it is a real question.

Kadyrov is in many ways suitable for the continuation of Russia's policy, post-Putin. He declares that he not only actions in the interests of the Chechen Republic, but for the whole of the Russian Federation. His attitude towards the opposition is ruthless, a true believer in a dictatorship. He also believes that Ukraine is Russian land and should be part of the federation.

"I believed and believe that just as in the case of terrorism in Syria, Russia must protect its interests before it has to defend them on its own territory,” Kadyrov said. “If there are no people in Ukraine who can stand up to America, we should help them.”

In the absence of a clear successor within Russia proper itself, Kadyrov's future candidacy doesn't look so far-fetched in our crazy reality. Still, the destiny of all is now largely hingeing on Ukraine. Putin chooses to keep a respectful distance from Kadyrov, not patronizing him, letting him do as he likes. And that already says a lot.