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Geopolitics

The Train Wreck That Is Poland Right Now

Everything is collapsing: The zloty is sinking, a virus is spreading, diplomacy has disappeared, and so has the rule of law. And the government claims everything is going just fine.

Photo of police forces standing behind barbed wire on the Poland-Belarus border.

Police forces on the Poland-Belarus border.

Monika Olejnik

-OpEd-

WARSAW — Everywhere we look, there is a disaster.

The zloty is sinking because of inflation, which we owe to the head of Poland's central bank Adam Glapinski, a political ally of ruling PiS party leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski since the early 1990s when the pair demonstrated against then President Lech Wałęsa and joined in burning his effigy.

At the same time, we also have a COVID-19 catastrophe. As we've witnessed, 25,000 daily cases and hundreds of deaths are not enough for the government to introduce any kind of restrictions. The Prime Minister is afraid of demonstrations that could lead to deaths from COVID-19, while tens of thousands of people recently attended the National Stadium without masks and nobody checked whether anyone was vaccinated.


When journalists ask representatives of the Health Ministry why there are no restrictions or vaccines mandates, the answer is that we have a different culture than in other countries, we are not like the Germans or the Austrians… we are more rebellious!

The power of anti-vax

How are we different from Spaniards, French, Italians, Czechs, Ukrainians, Austrians or Germans? What is this utter nonsense? This government is simply afraid of anti-vaccine sentiment. It is shameful that the Medical Council of the Prime Minister says one thing and the government says another. Why do you need this Medical Council, Mr. Prime Minister, if you do not listen to it?

Is it a restriction of freedom?

Or do Poles have different organisms than other nations, and will somehow survive this pandemic? When we hear about COVID-19 infected newborns at the hospital, our hearts go out to them — but we also ask why nobody told their mothers that they should get vaccinated during their pregnancy.

And is it so difficult to go to the cinema, theater, restaurants with vaccine passports or negative test results? Is it a restriction of freedom? Is following traffic regulations when driving a car a restriction of freedom?

Photo of Polish President Andrzej Duda giving a speech in Warsaw on Nov. 11

Polish President Andrzej Duda giving a speech in Warsaw on Nov. 11

Damian Burzykowski/Newspix/ZUMA

When Kaczynski gets involved

And finally, we have a moral disaster at the border, as historian, journalist and Holocaust survivor Marian Turski declared. We are in a diplomatic debacle indeed. When Aleksander Kwasniewski was Poland's president, he took a stand in the Maidan Square conflict in Ukraine to such an extent that he probably lost his chance to become UN Secretary General because Putin never forgave him. When there was a conflict in Georgia, President Lech Kaczynski got involved. But now that there is a conflict on the Polish-Belarusian border, and President Andrzej Duda tells the German president: "We will not accept any arrangements that were made without our approval."

Sure, it is bothersome to see Chancellor Angela Merkel talking to Belarus strongman Alexander Lukashenko or President Emmanuel Macron talking to Vladimir Putin. But instead of being annoyed by this, Mr. President, you should have organized a Franco-German-Polish summit. That's what the presidency is about, not just throwing around big words.

So the best we can do is flex our muscles, since the government itself can't confront any of these disasters. And on each front, it is Poland's citizens and good name that pays the consequences.

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FOCUS: Russia-Ukraine War

Why Negotiating With Russia Would Be A Disaster For Ukraine — And The World

A month into Ukraine's counteroffensive, claims that it has failed are wildly premature. Even more troubling are the steady whispers that Kyiv must sit down with Russia to negotiate. But it's clearer than ever that only complete Ukrainian victory can bring lasting peace.

Photo of Servicemen of the 128th separate mountain assault brigade pose for a picture.

June 30, 2023, Ukraine: Servicemen of the 128th separate mountain assault brigade pose for a picture.

Dmytro Smoliyenko/ZUMA
Yuri Fedorov

-OpEd-

KYIV — "The quickest way of ending a war is to lose it," George Orwell once remarked.

We're reminded of those words recently as we hear more and more calls for negotiations. Since mid-June, about 10 to 12 days after the Ukrainian counteroffensive began, a number of Western political scientists and journalists, claiming to cite anonymous government sources, have argued that the Ukrainian offensive is proceeding too slowly. If it continues to stall, they say, the West will reduce or completely withdraw support from Ukraine, forcing Kyiv to agree to a ceasefire and enter into negotiations with Russia.

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American political scientist Graham Allison argues that if Ukraine does not seize the chance presented by the recent Wagner coup “to break the stasis that governs the battlefield in eastern Ukraine, we will enter a very different chapter in this conflict... Many of Ukraine’s supporters in Europe and even in the United States will join the Global South’s chorus calling for both sides to stop the killing and begin serious negotiations about a cease-fire."

Russian voices, including those who consider themselves in opposition to the current regime, echo the Western skeptics.

The reasoning behind this type of thinking is straightforward: if the Ukrainian Armed Forces were unable to achieve immediate success by overpowering the enemy's defenses, penetrating operational territory, and capturing Melitopol and Mariupol in one decisive strike, it would be more prudent to avoid sacrificing the lives of Ukrainian and Russian soldiers.

Instead, it would be preferable to engage in diplomatic negotiations. This outcome would please activists from the Global South, left-wing pacifists, and certain circles in Western countries who may desire to maintain Russia's presence, possibly by replacing Putin with a more acceptable dictator.

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