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Germany

Is Germany's Economic Uptick Enough To End The Euro Crisis?

In Frankfurt, a European locomotive...
In Frankfurt, a European locomotive...
Hans von der Hagen

-Op-Ed-

MUNICHWe Germans have always struggled with the euro crisis. We talk about it a lot, muse about what would happen if the euro zone split up, bitch about those nasty countries frittering our money away. But there’s one thing we don’t do: suffer from the economic crisis. On the contrary. Even if everything isn’t absolutely perfect in Germany, there’s enough money, work — and vacations — to go around.

That’s not the case in other euro zone countries. There the crisis has hit many people hard. Countless companies have gone bankrupt, jobs have been wiped out and lives destroyed. In those countries the crisis is palpable, every day. It’s like a never-ending nightmare.

That may be changing now, at least a little, as the most recent figures offer hope. For the first time since the fall of 2011, economic conditions are improving. In the second quarter, which is to say April through June 2013, the economy in the euro zone grew 0.3% over the previous quarter. The economies of all 28 EU countries also grew at the same rate. This could mean that the longest recession in the still-young history of the euro zone finally has been vanquished.

Things don’t look quite so rosy, of course, when comparing the second quarter of 2013 with the second quarter of 2012. During that period, the economy declined by 0.7%.

Nevertheless, it’s important that there are some signs of economic movement in Europe. To be sure, the upswing is mainly thanks to strong growth in Germany and France, and — if the situation in Greece is still disastrous — at least in Spain and Italy things are also getting appreciably better. Growth figures for both of those countries are showing minus signs, but just barely. And Portugal has emerged with a bang: GDP there grew 1.1%, which means it now has the highest growth rate in Europe.

When economies are at stake, such signals usually count more than actual figures. They set in motion new ways of thinking that can strengthen positive development. That means that companies and investors can increasingly invest money in the crisis countries to profit early from the growth ahead.

The euro crisis can by no stretch of the imagination be considered over. But more clearly now than in the past few months, we are seeing something of the upswing in Europe that the financial markets have been anticipating euphorically since last fall.

The news is good for Germans too whose creditworthiness is helping Europe emerge from the crisis. But things could change within the foreseeable future. All the money that anxious investors sent the Federal Republic’s way during the crisis because it was “safe” could soon be flowing to regions where growth rates are higher, and hence more lucrative.

That’s when those who think Germany’s boom is going to go on forever may be in for a big surprise. Chances are that’s when they’ll really have something to talk about.

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Economy

Lex Tusk? How Poland’s Controversial "Russian Influence" Law Will Subvert Democracy

The new “lex Tusk” includes language about companies and their management. But is this likely to be a fair investigation into breaking sanctions on Russia, or a political witch-hunt in the business sphere?

Photo of President of the Republic of Poland Andrzej Duda

Polish President Andrzej Duda

Piotr Miaczynski, Leszek Kostrzewski

-Analysis-

WARSAW — Poland’s new Commission for investigating Russian influence, which President Andrzej Duda signed into law on Monday, will be able to summon representatives of any company for inquiry. It has sparked a major controversy in Polish politics, as political opponents of the government warn that the Commission has been given near absolute power to investigate and punish any citizen, business or organization.

And opposition politicians are expected to be high on the list of would-be suspects, starting with Donald Tusk, who is challenging the ruling PiS government to return to the presidency next fall. For that reason, it has been sardonically dubbed: Lex Tusk.

University of Warsaw law professor Michal Romanowski notes that the interests of any firm can be considered favorable to Russia. “These are instruments which the likes of Putin and Orban would not be ashamed of," Romanowski said.

The law on the Commission for examining Russian influences has "atomic" prerogatives sewn into it. Nine members of the Commission with the rank of secretary of state will be able to summon virtually anyone, with the powers of severe punishment.

Under the new law, these Commissioners will become arbiters of nearly absolute power, and will be able to use the resources of nearly any organ of the state, including the secret services, in order to demand access to every available document. They will be able to prosecute people for acts which were not prohibited at the time they were committed.

Their prerogatives are broader than that of the President or the Prime Minister, wider than those of any court. And there is virtually no oversight over their actions.

Nobody can feel safe. This includes companies, their management, lawyers, journalists, and trade unionists.

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