Georgia, Moldova, North Macedonia: How Russia Tries To Seep Into Europe At The Edges

-Analysis-

PARIS — Georgia, Moldova and North Macedonia have very different political situations, but they all affect their relationship with the EU, and potentially the stability of the continent in the shadow of the war in Ukraine.

Yesterday, “Ode to Joy,” the official EU anthem, resounded in front of the Parliament in Tbilisi, the capital of Georgia. But inside parliament, the mood was different: Deputies came to physical blows during the adoption of a highly controversial law that has been shaking the Caucasus country for days.

The “foreign influence” law, modeled on a similar law in Russia that has severely curtailed the space for civil society, was adopted by 84 votes to 30. The vote was held despite of the very strong popular mobilization in the streets. Immediately after the vote, police violently dispersed the protesters.

Moldova defies

Under pressure from Moscow, the Georgian government ignored a warning from Brussels, that “this law will be a serious obstacle for Georgia in its European perspective.” But the government believes that without this law, Georgia risks the same fate as Ukraine. Restricting freedoms so as not to risk a Russian destabilization – that’s what it’s come to.

Moldova’s stakes are high.

Moldova has made the opposite choice: It is preparing to sign a security agreement with the EU, which will allow them to benefit from arms supplies financed by the 27 member states, as well as intelligence exchanges and joint maneuvers. Moldova already has candidate status.

This agreement will not go down well with Moscow, which does not want to see former Soviet republics move closer to the West. Moldova’s stakes are high, given that a third of its territory is occupied by Russian forces. But its courageous president, Maia Sandu, has opted for a European destiny and refuses to make any concessions.

European dream

The third country is North Macedonia, a former Yugoslav republic. The new president, Gordana Siljanovksa, was sworn in on Monday after having been elected by a large majority. The candidate of a nationalist-conservative party, she may well challenge the European choices of her predecessors. Her first statements made waves, notably with Greece, when she omitted the full name of “North Macedonia,” which had been agreed with Athens to avoid confusion with Greek Macedonia.

The potential for destabilization in the Balkans and Eastern Europe is considerable.

With the invasion of Ukraine, the EU has realized that its fate is also being played out on its periphery. The potential for destabilization in the Balkans and Eastern Europe is considerable. It’s not just Russia: China, Turkey and Iran see the continent’s “soft underbelly” as a place where their interests can be served.

Their inhabitants are divided. Some have aspirations to join the EU, the guarantor of prosperity and freedom; but part of the population is also susceptible to nationalist and populist ideas, often encouraged by Moscow.

The EU cannot ignore the fate of its neighbors, almost all of whom are candidates for membership. This makes each of them the object of a struggle for influence, which also largely depends on the outcome of the war in Ukraine. Georgia is the best example of this, with a population that does not want to let its “European dream” be stolen.