Egypt Cannot Rule Out War With Israel — And Must Learn From The Past

-Analysis-

CAIRO — Some forget that all Arab-Israeli wars — except for the 1948 war — began with Israeli aggression. Forget the press propaganda and Arab rhetoric before the 1956 and 1967 wars about our supposed appetite for war. In reality, Israel’s appetite was always stronger.

Of course, Gamal Abdel Nasser bears responsibility for the catastrophic defeat, but what he should be blamed for is the lack of preparedness and being caught by surprise — not the decision to go to war. Israel had wanted to attack Egypt since the exposure of the failed covert operation of the Pinhas Lavon affair in 1954. After two years of escalation, Israeli hawks got what they wanted through the Anglo-French alliance in the fall of 1956.

Still, some insist on starting the story of the 1967 war from the moment Nasser decided to close the Gulf of Aqaba and the Straits of Tiran and Sanafir, parroting the Israeli narrative while ignoring the aggression Tel Aviv had committed over the two years leading up to the war — diverting the Jordan River’s course and attacking the waters of Lake Tiberias. These actions led to the Arab Casablanca Summit in 1965.

This was followed by relentless aerial and ground incursions into Syria, much like what happens these days, with repeated threats from both the hawks and doves of Tel Aviv to march on and occupy Damascus.

Impending aggression

If you want to blame Nasser, blame him for not being prepared when all signs pointed toward an impending Israeli aggression. Curse him for indulging in wishful thinking, betting on a repeat of the 1956 war scenario, where he won politically despite his military setback. Just don’t blame him for his principled stance of resistance.

And we may be back to a similar situation now. Be clear that any future conflict with Israel will be long, bitter, and costly for Egypt.

We are now neighboring a country ruled by myth and religious obsession.

A few days ago, Douglas MacGregor, a retired U.S. colonel from the Christian-Zionist right wing tweeted a warning to Egypt that Israel might reoccupy the Sinai. MacGregor is not necessarily an important figure and may represent only the most extreme and reckless among the public voices. But even he would not have made such a statement just a year ago.

We must take everything that comes from religious-nationalist Zionism in Israel and Christian Zionism in America very seriously. The Israel of socialist kibbutzim is gone for good. We are now neighboring a country ruled by myth and religious obsession, strategically allied with the most right-wing and violent faction in America — a faction that is antisemitic but whose genocidal and apocalyptic impulses surpass any imaginable limit.

The end of restraint

If you think of these people as mere lunatics, remember that lunatics have historically had the greatest share in decision-making. Any remnant of past rationality tied to Israel’s secular state heritage was obliterated by October 7. Now, this entity has no choice but to activate its aggressive instincts to survive within its current ideological decay and internal balances.

I do not want war, no one does; but we must not indulge in wishful thinking or drown in the swamps of denial as we have always done, stacking defeat upon defeat. We must prepare and take this possibility with extreme seriousness, treating it as a likely scenario in the coming years.

Perhaps the truest thing Hosni Mubarak repeatedly said was that 1967 would never happen again. That was his goal and his wish. By that phrase, he meant that we would neither be dragged into war nor seek one, but would be ready for it. However, avoiding conflict and appeasement will not prevent war if Israel and the United States continue on their current trajectory.

Any future conflict with Israel will not resemble the 20th-century wars — those highly controlled, limited conflicts that lasted only days or weeks. Wars then followed rules of engagement that maintained a degree of rationality and restraint because they were overseen by the two superpowers of the Cold War.

Existential test

That era is over. Any future conflict with Israel will be long, bitter, and costly. Ordinary Egyptians, now better educated and more civilized than their defeated ancestors, will not sacrifice themselves unless their sacrifices lead to a better, fairer life.

We will not confront Israel with bourgeois elites who despise everything Arab.

When we say that Egypt must prepare, we do not mean the “Egyptians” in their gated communities or the heroes of Mohamed Sami’s TV series. We will not confront Israel with Ahmed El-Awady’s pumped-up movie characters, nor with bourgeois elites who despise everything Arab, flaunt a Pharaonic past, and speak only English. These are certain markers of defeat.

When we say Egypt must prepare, we also mean it’s also time to halt all of the infiltration and influence of the Gulf nations, which has eaten away at the nation’s core.

No more wishful thinking

Once again, no rational person wants war in a country exhausted by corruption, mismanagement, and debt. But it seems that Israel’s activation of its aggressive instincts has become a condition for its survival in its current deranged religious phase.

We may be able to delay war for now by shifting the conflict elsewhere, but we are already witnessing Israel provoking Syria with serious aggression — an aggression that serves no purpose other than aggression itself.

There is no room for mysticism or Pharaonic self-aggrandizement.

The defeat of 1967 will never happen again, even if we must fight with our nails. We will not lose the straits or the Abu Ageila axes, but this requires a different domestic front than the one we have now — one that is more serious, clear-sighted, and responsible, more rational and materialist, beginning from where the hardest decisions are made.

There is no room for mysticism, wishful thinking, or Pharaonic self-aggrandizement. Otherwise, this country will face true existential dangers like never before, and the price will be far greater than any bitter conflict with Israel — no matter how costly that conflict may be.