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How A Drone Strike Inside Iran Exposes The Regime's Vulnerability — On All Fronts
It is still not clear what was the exact target of an attack by three armed drones Saturday night on an arms factory in central Iran. But it comes as Tehran authorities appear increasingly vulnerable to both its foreign and domestic enemies, with more attacks increasingly likely.
One of the Saturday drone attacks arms factory in Isfahan, central Iran
PARIS
— It's the kind of incident that momentarily reveals the shadow wars that are part of the Middle East. No one has claimed responsibility for the attack by three armed drones Saturday night on an arms factory complex north of Isfahan in central Iran.
But the explosion was so strong that it set off a small earthquake.
Iranian authorities
have played down the damage, as we might expect, and claim to have shot down the drones.
Nevertheless, three armed drones reaching the center of Iran, buzzing right up to weapons factories, is anything but ordinary in light of recent events. Iran is at the crossroads of several crises: from the war in Ukraine where it's been supplying drones to Russia to its
nuclear
development arriving at the moment of truth; from regional wars of influence to the anti-government uprising of Iranian youth.
Stay up-to-date with
the latest on the Russia-Ukraine war
, with our exclusive international coverage.
That leaves us spoiled for choice when it comes to possible interpretations of this act of war against Iran, which likely is a precursor to plenty of others to follow.
Iranian authorities, in their comments, blame
the United States and Israel
for the aggression. These are the two usual suspects for Tehran, and it is not surprising that they are at the top of the list.
The U.S. press reports that Israel was responsible for this attack, the first against Iran since Benjamin Netanyahu's return to office with a far-right coalition. According to the
The New York Times
, it was the Mossad, Israel's secret service, that carried out the operation.
Nevertheless, a key question remains: what exactly was the target? Was it related to arms supplies to Russia? Or the Iranian nuclear program? Both scenarios are possible.
Did the drone strike nuclear weapons' operations?
The West has condemned the supply of Iranian drones to Russia, which is used to target
Ukrainian infrastructure
. At the end of December,
The New York Times
reported that the Biden administration was considering limiting Iran's ability to assist the Russian war effort.
The Iranian nuclear program is another explosive possibility.
But Israel, sensitive to its relations with Russia, has no reason to take such risks for a conflict in which the Jewish state has refused to get involved.
The Iranian nuclear program is the other explosive possibility. European and American efforts to revive the nuclear deal that was broken during
Donald Trump's administration
have failed. For months now, there have been no real negotiations, and Iran's centrifuges have been running at full speed, bringing Iran closer every day to its ability to produce a nuclear weapon. Israel is vehemently opposed to this program as it is to other Iranian weapon programs, such as missile production, which it believes is a direct threat to its security.
Anti Iranian government protests in London on Jan. 28
Yet the disparate issues, ever more, blend into one. Iran is increasingly seen as a kind of besieged fortress, with a regime that has hardened ideologically as its legitimacy grows weaker.
The scale of the
uprising led by Iranian women
has seriously worried the leaders of the Islamic Republic: they have opted for repression, with hundreds of deaths that have reduced the number of demonstrations but not the popular discontent.
This internal hardening is also noticeable on the outside. And now, we see that the alternative is the risk of direct confrontation. The drones in Isfahan are arguably only a foretaste of what’s to come.
How A Drone Strike Inside Iran Exposes The Regime's Vulnerability — On All Fronts
It is still not clear what was the exact target of an attack by three armed drones Saturday night on an arms factory in central Iran. But it comes as Tehran authorities appear increasingly vulnerable to both its foreign and domestic enemies, with more attacks increasingly likely.
One of the Saturday drone attacks arms factory in Isfahan, central Iran
PARIS
— It's the kind of incident that momentarily reveals the shadow wars that are part of the Middle East. No one has claimed responsibility for the attack by three armed drones Saturday night on an arms factory complex north of Isfahan in central Iran.
But the explosion was so strong that it set off a small earthquake.
Iranian authorities
have played down the damage, as we might expect, and claim to have shot down the drones.
Nevertheless, three armed drones reaching the center of Iran, buzzing right up to weapons factories, is anything but ordinary in light of recent events. Iran is at the crossroads of several crises: from the war in Ukraine where it's been supplying drones to Russia to its
nuclear
development arriving at the moment of truth; from regional wars of influence to the anti-government uprising of Iranian youth.
Stay up-to-date with
the latest on the Russia-Ukraine war
, with our exclusive international coverage.
That leaves us spoiled for choice when it comes to possible interpretations of this act of war against Iran, which likely is a precursor to plenty of others to follow.
Iranian authorities, in their comments, blame
the United States and Israel
for the aggression. These are the two usual suspects for Tehran, and it is not surprising that they are at the top of the list.
The U.S. press reports that Israel was responsible for this attack, the first against Iran since Benjamin Netanyahu's return to office with a far-right coalition. According to the
The New York Times
, it was the Mossad, Israel's secret service, that carried out the operation.
Nevertheless, a key question remains: what exactly was the target? Was it related to arms supplies to Russia? Or the Iranian nuclear program? Both scenarios are possible.
Did the drone strike nuclear weapons' operations?
The West has condemned the supply of Iranian drones to Russia, which is used to target
Ukrainian infrastructure
. At the end of December,
The New York Times
reported that the Biden administration was considering limiting Iran's ability to assist the Russian war effort.
The Iranian nuclear program is another explosive possibility.
But Israel, sensitive to its relations with Russia, has no reason to take such risks for a conflict in which the Jewish state has refused to get involved.
The Iranian nuclear program is the other explosive possibility. European and American efforts to revive the nuclear deal that was broken during
Donald Trump's administration
have failed. For months now, there have been no real negotiations, and Iran's centrifuges have been running at full speed, bringing Iran closer every day to its ability to produce a nuclear weapon. Israel is vehemently opposed to this program as it is to other Iranian weapon programs, such as missile production, which it believes is a direct threat to its security.
Anti Iranian government protests in London on Jan. 28
Yet the disparate issues, ever more, blend into one. Iran is increasingly seen as a kind of besieged fortress, with a regime that has hardened ideologically as its legitimacy grows weaker.
The scale of the
uprising led by Iranian women
has seriously worried the leaders of the Islamic Republic: they have opted for repression, with hundreds of deaths that have reduced the number of demonstrations but not the popular discontent.
This internal hardening is also noticeable on the outside. And now, we see that the alternative is the risk of direct confrontation. The drones in Isfahan are arguably only a foretaste of what’s to come.
A top Hamas spokesman
appeared in a video
late Monday to address the ongoing hostage situation, saying that between 200 and 250 hostages are currently being held in Gaza. Abu Obayda, the spokesman for Ezzedine al-Qassam Brigades, the' military wing of Hamas, said that hostages with a foreign passport are "our guests," who will be protected and released when conditions on the ground permit,
Times of Israel
is reporting.
Obayda, who appeared with his face covered in a keffiyah Palestinian scarf, repeated an earlier Hamas claim that 22 hostages have been killed in Israel air raids.
Also late Monday, the first video of a hostage was circulated, showing Maya Schem, a 21-year-old French-Israeli dual citizen captured during the musical festival last Saturday, with her arm being wrapped in a bandage. (See below) Israeli officials criticized the video as
propaganda
and psychological warfare. Schem's family released a statement that they were "happy" to see her alive.
The timing of the videos appeared to be a response to a report earlier Monday by the Israeli army on the hostage situation. Israel reported that
Hamas is holding 199
hostages, higher than the 155 previously stated by the army. The top spokesperson for the Israeli Defense Forces, Daniel Hagari, says the military has notified the families of all those confirmed held in Gaza after last Saturday’s massive attack by Hamas in southern Israel.
“We are making valiant efforts to try to understand where the hostages are in Gaza, and we have such information,” Hagari was quoted by Israeli media. “We will not carry out an attack that would endanger our people.”
Israel has been conducting massive air raids in Gaza aimed at hitting Hamas, which have come with an enormous price in Palestinian civilian casualties, with the total death count now above 2,700. Families of the hostages have feared that their loved ones could be among those killed by Israel’s air strikes.
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The hostages include at least 13 children and at least eight people over the age of 60, including at least two over 80. UK Foreign Secretary James Cleverly said on Sunday that up to 10 British people may be being held in Gaza. The U.S. has also confirmed a number of its citizens have been captured by Hamas, and that 13 of its citizens are missing. Thai officials say 17 of the country's nationals are also being held in Gaza, while
France
says 13 of its citizens remain missing. Eight Germans, two Mexicans and one Russian-Israeli are among the hostages.
Hamas has said it has hidden its hostages in "safe places and tunnels" within Gaza, and has threatened to kill them if civilian homes are bombed by Israel without warning. Plans for a likely
Israeli ground invasion
will have to take into account the fate of the hostages.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry said on Monday that Hamas was potentially ready to release the hostages if Israel stops their airstrikes on Gaza. But the militant group has not acknowledged making such an offer.
Speaking on Monday to the Knesset, the Israeli parliament, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he is in touch with the families of those being held by Hamas. "We are relentless in this effort to bring back our brothers and sisters, men and women, children and babies," he said.
Among those being held by Hamas is also Yaffa, 85 years old. Since the confirmation of her grandmother’s kidnapping, her family holds onto the hope of her being freed through international pressure. “If the whole world puts pressure on Hamas, the hostages will come back,” the hostage’s granddaughter Orian Adar tells
France24
“I don't want my grandmother to die in captivity.”
First video released of hostage in Gaza
Israel has killed 11 Palestinian journalists
🔊Today on Reuters World News podcast, we pay tribute to our colleague Issam Abdallah who was killed while filming Israeli missile attacks at the Israeli-Lebanon border.
Israel has killed 11 Palestinian journalists in airstrikes in Gaza since the Hamas incursion into southern Israel, according to
Reuters
. It cited the Palestinian Journalists Syndicate. Among those killed was Reuters journalist Issam Abdallah, 37, who died on Friday while filming Israeli missile attacks at the Israeli-Lebanon border.
Blinken back in Israel
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken met Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday. The U.S. top diplomat had already been in Israel last week, days after Hamas launched its attacks in Israel, and traveled to neighboring Arab countries, trying to prevent the conflict from escalating further.
Blinken's return comes as the U.S. seeks to help American citizens trapped in Gaza make their way across the only remaining exit from the besieged strip, the Rafah crossing to Egypt. The U.S. is also working with regional partners to help secure the release of hostages, including American citizens, taken by Hamas. Meanwhile, earlier Monday, the Israeli prime minister's office denied there were any arrangements to open the Rafah border crossing.
Read Cairo-based
Mada Masr’s
analysis of how the situation in Gaza is squeezing Egypt from all sides.
"The Enemy's Obsession"
Beirut-based daily
Al Akhbar
features a front page Monday on “the enemy’s obsession,” reporting on the multiplying airstrikes on Gaza. The Arabic-language publication notes that Israel is for now “stuck in the air” as the launch of a ground offensive is proving more complex than anticipated.
Israel evacuates its towns
In a joint statement on Monday, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and the Israeli Ministry of Defense announced a "plan to evacuate residents of northern Israel living in an area up to 2 kilometers (1.24 miles) from the Lebanese border," reports French daily
Le Monde
.
Residents will be taken to hotels and guesthouses, and their accommodation will be financed by the Israeli government. The Northern Israeli border area has been tense following repeated exchanges of fire between Lebanon's Hezbollah and the Israeli army since the attack on October 7.
Hezbollah announced in the afternoon that it had hit three targets in Israel, resulting in Israeli fire. The United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon reported that a rocket had hit a peacekeepers' building in southern Lebanon, without causing any casualties.
German Chancellor
Olaf Scholz
is expected to visit Israel on Tuesday to express his solidarity according to German daily
Die Welt
.
Israeli newspapers such as Israel Hayom and
Haaretz
also reported on the visit.
In a speech to the Bundestag, Germany's lower house of parliament, on Thursday, the Chancellor affirmed Germany's unwavering support for Israel. "Germany's only place is with Israel", he said, adding that the "historical responsibility resulting from the Holocaust" imposed on the country the "permanent duty to defend Israel's existence and security." The head of German diplomacy, Annalena Baerbock, had already visited Israel on Friday to express her solidarity, before traveling to Egypt on Saturday.
French columnist Pierre Haski wonders if its not getting too late for Western allies to contain Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s
thirst for revenge
.
Siege update
The communications director of the United Nations Palestinian
refugee
agency UNRWA has called for border crossings with Gaza to be opened to allow humanitarian
aid to reach Palestinians.
UNRWA said 1 million people in Gaza had been forced to flee their homes with at least half of them sheltering in UN facilities, with the need for food and fuel growing urgent.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office told CNN on Sunday that Israel has restored water to southern Gaza. But on Monday, the director of Gaza’s water authority Munther Shublaq disputed that claim, telling CNN that water has not been supplied to the enclave.
Israeli military airstrikes have killed at least 2,750 people and injured more than 9,700, the Palestinian health ministry in Gaza said in a statement Monday. In the West Bank, 58 people have been killed and more than 1,250 injured, the ministry added.
Meanwhile, m
ore than 1,000 are still missing under houses and buildings destroyed in Israeli air strikes on Gaza, according to the Palestinian civil defense.
New Russian propaganda campaign tries to link Kyiv and Hamas
Russian Telegram channels and media outlets have launched a coordinated propaganda campaign aiming to undermine Ukraine and its Western allies by propagating disinformation about Ukraine and the Middle East.
Central to this disinformation effort are false claims that Ukrainian weapons are being utilized by Hamas, Kyiv-based
Livy Bereg
reports.
In a recent instance, a
video
surfaced on the "Reporter Rudenko V" Telegram channel, allegedly depicting Ukrainian weapons in the hands of Hamas. However, the authenticity of this video is highly questionable, as it presents a collection of weapons without credible confirmation of their Ukrainian origin.
Prominent Russian propagandist Vladimir Solovyov also played a role in propagating similar unverified narratives. Solovyov
cited
an alleged screenshot from a foreign news story, reporting that Israeli soldiers had apprehended terrorists armed with weapons from Ukraine. No link to the referenced report was provided, and attempts to locate the article on search engines like Google proved futile.
Furthermore, the disinformation campaign extended to distributing a fabricated video falsely attributed to the
BBC
and
Bellingcat
. Both organizations categorically refuted the authenticity of these videos. Russian propagandists have also seized upon this disinformation to undermine Ukraine's Western partners, particularly the United States, insinuating that they are incapable of providing military support on multiple fronts.
Unconfirmed reports have circulated on Iranian and Italian language media of an assassination attempt against a top Iranian intelligence official in Tehran.
Rome-based
La Repubblica
daily says Mohammad Akiki, a top member of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard was shot in Tehran and is in critical condition.
There is speculation that the attack was orchestrated by Israel’s Mossad intelligence services, as payback for the assault against Israeli civilians last Saturday.
