BEIJING - Every time that German Chancellor Angela Merkel makes a trip to China, she always goes home with a large chunk of investment. Her just concluded visit was no exception. In addition to more than 10 cooperation agreements in areas such as aerospace and the automotive industries, Merkel has also obtained a commitment from Wen Jiabao, the Chinese Premier, that “China is willing to continue to invest in European debt under the premise of fully considered risk control."
This is already Merkel’s second visit to China this year, and her sixth since she became Chancellor in 2005. As the German newspaper Bild put it: even the meetings between Merkel and President Barack Obama are outnumbered by her meetings with the “Chinese comrades.”
At a press conference prior to this latest visit, German officials even described Sino-German relations as a “special relationship.”
In 1946, Winston Churchill, then Britain’s Prime Minister, used the term “special relationship” to describe the U.S.-UK bond. Since then, the term has been recycled in diplomacy to describe “unparalleled” allied relations between two nations.
Obviously due to various differences, including political ideology, the Sino-German “special relations” are bound to be different from that of the U.S. and the UK. Nevertheless, there’s no doubt that both governments have an eager desire to enhance communication and cooperation with each other.
This second round of Sino-German negotiations co-chaired by Wen and Merkel was originally scheduled to take place in 2013. But China proposed to push it up on the calendar, and Germany readily agreed. China says that it wants the consultation to be held this year because the Chinese leadership is about to change and Merkel will be able to establish contact with China’s future leader, taking the chance to discuss how the two states can strengthen their collaboration.
With trade at the center of the German chancellor’s trip, and the continuing heating up of Sino-German business dealings, some Europeans worry whether the continent’s biggest economy might cast aside Brussels and deal with China alone.
What is certain is that Germany will not undermine its European neighbors, in particular on the diplomatic front. However, it is foreseeable that Germany will establish closer economic ties “unilaterally” with China.
The EU has been trying to set up a unified trade policy towards China among its 27 member countries. Still, each of these members has been secretly trying to establish tighter commercial links with China individually. Among the EU member states, as well as its different institutions, there are a range of interests and positions. Agreement is difficult to reach. Meanwhile, Germany thrives alongside the European debt crisis and holds a leading position in that crisis. This makes it a country that China is more inclined to deal with.
But an even more fundamental reason is that Germany is one of the few EU countries that are economically complementary with China. China needs expertise, and Germany needs Chinese markets.
Chinese companies that possess sufficient funds expanded their investments in Germany during the European debt crisis, in particular medium-size companies that are leaders in their fields but are still not well known. For example, the Lingyun Group, an affiliate of China’s state-owned weapons and equipment group, the China North Industries Group, has united with other Chinese groups in the acquisition of Kiekert, the German automotive locks manufacturer. Kiekert is the global leader in latch closing systems and owns more than 840 patented technologies.
Meanwhile, Merkel’s attitude towards China has shifted gradually from hardline to pragmatic. Not only has she sidestepped issues such as human rights and patent protection, but she also indicated that she wishes that the EU would not start an anti-dumping procedure with regards to the photovoltaic dispute issue between China and the EU.
Still, from the point of view of strategic balance, the current warm Sino-German ties does not replace the China-EU relationship.
Following Merkel’s visit to China, the EU-China summit is to be held in Brussels in a few weeks. The Chancellor will deliver an address and German officials insist that they will express a view based on the interests of the whole EU. I’m afraid that this EU is really the “German Europe” that has been spawned by the debt crisis. This means that eventually Sino-EU relations will morph into Sino-German relations.
Will flying be greener? More comfortable? Less frequent? As the world eyes a post-COVID reality, we look at ways the airline industry has been changing through a pandemic that has devastated air travel.
It's hard to overstate the damage the pandemic has had on the airline industry, with global revenues dropping by 40% in 2020 and dozens of airlines around the world filing for bankruptcy. One moment last year when the gravity became particularly apparent was when Asian carriers (in countries with low COVID-19 rates) began offering "flights to nowhere" — starting and ending at the same airport as a way to earn some cash from would-be travelers who missed the in-flight experience.
More than a year later today, experts believe that air traffic won't return to normal levels until 2024.
But beyond the financial woes, the unprecedented slowdown in air travel may bring some silver linings as key aspects of the industry are bound to change once back in full spin, with some longer-term effects on aviation already emerging. Here are some major transformations to expect in the coming years:
Cleaner aviation fuel
The U.S. administration of President Joe Biden and the airline industry recently agreed to the ambitious goal of replacing all jet fuel with sustainable alternatives by 2050. Already in a decade, the U.S. aims to produce three billion gallons of sustainable fuel — about one-tenth of current total use — from waste, plants and other organic matter.
While greening the world's road transport has long been at the top of the climate agenda, aviation is not even included under the Paris Agreement. But with air travel responsible for roughly 12% of all CO2 emissions from transport, and stricter international regulation on the horizon, the industry is increasingly seeking sustainable alternatives to petroleum-based fuel.
Fees imposed on the airline industry should be funneled into a climate fund.
In Germany, state broadcaster Deutsche Welle reports that the world's first factory producing CO2-neutral kerosene recently started operations in the town of Wertle, in Lower Saxony. The plant, for which Lufthansa is set to become the pilot customer, will produce CO2-neutral kerosene through a circular production cycle incorporating sustainable and green energy sources and raw materials. Energy is supplied through wind turbines from the surrounding area, while the fuel's main ingredients are water and waste-generated CO2 coming from a nearby biogas plant.
Farther north, Norwegian Air Shuttle has recently submitted a recommendation to the government that fees imposed on the airline industry should be funneled into a climate fund aimed at developing cleaner aviation fuel, according to Norwegian news site E24. The airline also suggested that the government significantly reduce the tax burden on the industry over a longer period to allow airlines to recover from the pandemic.
High-flying ambitions for the sector
Hydrogen and electrification
Some airline manufacturers are betting on hydrogen, with research suggesting that the abundant resource has the potential to match the flight distances and payload of a current fossil-fuel aircraft. If derived from renewable resources like sun and wind power, hydrogen — with an energy-density almost three times that of gasoline or diesel — could work as a fully sustainable aviation fuel that emits only water.
One example comes out of California, where fuel-cell specialist HyPoint has entered a partnership with Pennsylvania-based Piasecki Aircraft Corporation to manufacture 650-kilowatt hydrogen fuel cell systems for aircrafts. According to HyPoint, the system — scheduled for commercial availability product by 2025 — will have four times the energy density of existing lithium-ion batteries and double the specific power of existing hydrogen fuel-cell systems.
Meanwhile, Rolls-Royce is looking to smash the speed record of electrical flights with a newly designed 23-foot-long model. Christened the Spirit of Innovation, the small plane took off for the first time earlier this month and successfully managed a 15-minute long test flight. However, the company has announced plans to fly the machine faster than 300 mph (480 km/h) before the year is out, and also to sell similar propulsion systems to companies developing electrical air taxis or small commuter planes.
New aircraft designs
Airlines are also upgrading aircraft design to become more eco-friendly. Air France just received its first upgrade of a single-aisle, medium-haul aircraft in 33 years. Fleet director Nicolas Bertrand told French daily Les Echos that the new A220 — that will replace the old A320 model — will reduce operating costs by 10%, fuel consumption and CO2 emissions by 20% and noise footprint by 34%.
International first class will be very nearly a thing of the past.
The pandemic has also ushered in a new era of consumer demand where privacy and personal space is put above luxury. The retirement of older aircraft caused by COVID-19 means that international first class — already in steady decline over the last decades — will be very nearly a thing of the past. Instead, airplane manufacturers around the world (including Delta, China Eastern, JetBlue, British Airways and Shanghai Airlines) are betting on a new generation of super-business minisuites where passengers have a privacy door. The idea, which was introduced by Qatar Airways in 2017, is to offer more personal space than in regular business class but without the lavishness of first class.
Aerial view of Rome's Fiumicino airportcommons.wikimedia.org
Rome's Fiumicino Airport has become the first in the world to earn "the COVID-19 5-Star Airport Rating" from Skytrax, an international airline and airport review and ranking site, Italian daily La Repubblica reports. Skytrax, which publishes a yearly annual ranking of the world's best airports and issues the World Airport Awards, this year created a second list to specifically call out airports with the best health and hygiene standards.
The pandemic has also accelerated the shift towards contactless traveling, with more airports harnessing the power of biometrics — such as facial recognition or fever screening — to reduce touchpoints and human contact. Similar technology can also be used to more efficiently scan physical objects, such as explosive detection. Ultimately, passengers will be able to "check-in" and go through a security screening anywhere at the airports, removing queues and bottlenecks.
Data privacy issues
However, as pointed out in Canadian publication The Lawyer's Daily, increased use of AI and biometrics also means increased privacy concerns. For example, health and hygiene measures like digital vaccine passports also mean that airports can collect data on who has been vaccinated and the type of vaccine used.
Auckland Airport, New Zealand
The billion-dollar question: Will we fly less?
At the end of the day, even with all these (mostly positive) changes that we've seen take shape over the past 18 months, the industry faces major uncertainty about whether air travel will ever return to the pre-COVID levels. Not only are people wary about being in crowded and closed airplanes, but the worth of long-distance business travel in particular is being questioned as many have seen that meetings can function remotely, via Zoom and other online apps.
Trying to forecast the future, experts point to the years following the 9/11 terrorist attacks as at least a partial blueprint for what a recovery might look like in the years ahead. Twenty years ago, as passenger enthusiasm for flying waned amid security fears following the attacks, airlines were forced to cancel flights and put planes into storage.
40% of Swedes intend to travel less
According to McKinsey, leisure trips and visits to family and friends rebounded faster than business flights, which took four years to return to pre-crisis levels in the UK. This time too, business travel is expected to lag, with the consulting firm estimating only 80% recovery of pre-pandemic levels by 2024.
But the COVID-19 crisis also came at a time when passengers were already rethinking their travel habits due to climate concerns, while worldwide lockdowns have ushered in a new era of remote working. In Sweden, a survey by the country's largest research company shows that 40% of the population intend to travel less even after the pandemic ends. Similarly in the UK, nearly 60% of adults said during the spring they intended to fly less after being vaccinated against COVID-19 — with climate change cited as a top reason for people wanting to reduce their number of flights, according to research by the University of Bristol.
At the same time, major companies are increasingly forced to face the music of the environmental movement, with several corporations rolling out climate targets over the last few years. Today, five of the 10 biggest buyers of corporate air travel in the US are technology companies: Amazon, IBM, Google, Apple and Microsoft, according to Taipei Times, all of which have set individual targets for environmental stewardship. As such, the era of flying across the Atlantic for a two-hour executive meeting is likely in its dying days.
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