A 2016 file photo of Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammad bin Salman and Chinese President Xi Jinping.
-Analysis-
PARIS — There is the agreement itself, and there are the circumstances surrounding the agreement. Saudi Arabia and Iran had severed diplomatic ties in 2016 after the execution of a Saudi Shiite leader. The restoration of relations between these two rival Middle East powers is therefore no small feat.
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But even more intriguing, more spectacular, and totally unexpected is the role played by China. For it was in Beijing that Friday's agreement was signed. The photo of China's top diplomat, State Councillor Wang Yi, surrounded by the Saudi and Iranian ministers, in front of a large Chinese painting in Beijing, attests to a world that has suddenly changed.
This is undoubtedly the first time that China has taken on the role of mediator in the Middle East, a stance that has electrified the region and beyond since the announcement of the agreement.
Among the most shocked is the United States, once the exclusive protector of Saudi Arabia, and Israel, which had been slowly shaping its relationship with Riyadh toward a shared stance against Iran and its nuclear ambitions.
Raisi in Beijing
For Beijing, in the midst of a new cold war with the United States, this is a diplomatic coup: China displays both its superpower status in an area where it was not expected, and presents itself as a responsible and peaceful nation, which is good for its image in the non-Western world.
The real role played by China in the negotiations is unknown, beyond providing the framework for the final stage, that of the signature. But what is interesting is to understand why both Iran and Saudi Arabia accepted this Chinese sponsorship. Each has its own reasons.
Iran, under U.S. sanctions, is emerging from its isolation and forging closer ties with Russia and China. The rapprochement with Moscow was manifested by the delivery of drones used against Ukraine. But not enough attention was paid to the visit of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi to Beijing last month, a prelude to this agreement.
Top diplomats of Saudi Arabia, China and Iran for the signing ceremony in Beijing on March 10, 2023.
Shuffling of cards
For its part, Saudi Arabia has been playing a more subtle game since the beginning of the war in Ukraine. It has emancipated itself from American tutelage, refusing Joe Biden's request to increase oil quotas, before the surprise rolling out the red carpet for Xi Jinping.
The Chinese leader was certain to be the first to shake hands with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman when Westerners were boycotting him after the assassination of journalist Jamal Khashoggi. But there is also a more lasting reshuffling of cards, linked to the mid-sized powers on the planet.
What does this agreement change? It reduces tension between these two countries, which have been on the brink of war more than once. Its first effect should be to revive hopes for peace in Yemen, where Saudi Arabia and Iran have been waging a proxy war.
Iran should also abandon its threats to its neighbor, such as when it bombed oil installations in 2019.
But what about Iran's nuclear program, which is dangerously close to the critical threshold of uranium enrichment? And what about other fronts of Iranian activity in the region, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon...?
The agreement raises as many questions as answers it provides. But it has achieved its first objective: to surprise, and to signify to the West that the world has changed.
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