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Geopolitics

Will Bolsonaro And Family Flee To Italy?

With risks of arrest rising after the violence in Brasilia, many wonder if the former Brazilian president and his family will seek refuge in Italy, where they would qualify for citizenship and a friendly government is in charge.

photo of Bolsonaro dressed in black

Bolsonaro at a rally in August

Edson De Souza/TheNEWS2 via ZUMA
Ginevra Falciani

Days after their father’s election loss, Senator Flavio Bolsonaro and his younger brother Eduardo were spotted at the entrance of the Italian embassy in Brasilia.

“I have no intention of leaving Brazil,” the Senator and eldest son of President Jair Bolsonaro insisted to the journalist of Brazilian weekly magazine Metropoles, who’d seen the brothers arriving at the embassy.

“My family has Italian origins and I have the right to apply for Italian citizenship. This procedure started in September 2019,” the 38-year-old Bolsonaro added.

That was November, nine days after Jair Bolsonaro’s defeat by Lula da Silva, but well before their father took refuge in Florida — and the events of Sunday, where Bolsonaro supporters assaulted the nation’s top institutions in the capital, leading to mass arrests.

Questions are circulating in Italy and Brazil about whether the Bolsonaro family (he has five children from three marriages) is considering seeking asylum in Italy, which they not only claim ancestral connections but also now has a friendly right-wing government in charge, headed by Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. "Italian Citizenship to Bolsonaro: Here's What Could Happen," headlined Milan daily Il Sole 24 Ore this week.


For his part, former President Bolsonaro is still in Florida, where he entered using his now-expired diplomatic passport. It is unclear how long he is intending to remain there, but this might have to do with the loss of his presidential immunity, which now exposes him to criminal and electoral investigations in Brazil that could lead to his arrest.

Meloni and Salvini, old friends

Currently, no warrant has been issued against him, but this could almost entirely be dependent on the fact that Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes is waiting for the former president to return to Brazil, as extraditing someone for political reasons from the U.S. is not easy. Indeed, speculation about his family’s interest in Italy also stems from the fact that Rome’s extradition agreement with Brazil does not apply to politically motivated crimes.

Meloni, and her vice premier Matteo Salvini are long-time allies of the Bolsonaro family, and Eduardo Bolsonaro was among the first to personally congratulate her on the day of her victory.

On Sunday night, Meloni condemned the storming of key government buildings in Brasilia, but she has yet to state publicly that these actions were committed by Bolsonaro’s supporters.

Photo of Jair Bolsonaro with sons, Carlos, Fl\u00e1vio and Eduardo in 2015

Jair Bolsonaro with sons, Carlos, Flávio and Eduardo in 2015

Bolsonaro family Flickr

Northern roots

Facing growing queries from the Brazilian media about the possibility of the Bolsonaro family seeking asylum in Italy, Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani issued a statement denying that Bolsonaro had requested citizenship, while confirming that the procedure opened by two of his children was still being processed.

The Bolsonaro family has all the requirements to receive Italian citizenship under a longstanding law that if you can prove to have an Italian ancestor (and that none of their offspring has legally renounced citizenship) you can rather easily gain a passport. It was applied often in the past for foreign soccer stars, including plenty from Brazil, who wanted to play in Italy’s top soccer league, which used to have limits on foreign players.

It’s also worth noting that Jair Bolsonaro is already an honorary citizen of the municipality of Anguillara Veneta, a small town in northeastern Italy from where his ancestors left for Brazil in the 19th century and where he traveled in 2021 for the handover ceremony. This title has no legal value, but could speed up the process of obtaining Italian citizenship.

After Sunday’s events in Brasilia, the Il Gazzettino daily reported that several opposition politicians in Anguillara Veneta demanded that the mayor strip Bolsonaro of his honorary citizenship, which she refused to do. Yes, she’s an ally of Meloni.

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FOCUS: Russia-Ukraine War

The Most Likely Result Of Ukraine's Counteroffensive? Negotiations

As we wait for Ukraine's looming counteroffensive, analysts are already looking ahead and asking what will happen after this decisive summer. After brutal battles, a general weariness risks setting in, that could push Ukraine to accept a ceasefire.

Crews Test Drive Damaged Vehicles After Repairs

Since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, the 214th Battalion has been involved in some of the heaviest fighting in Ukraine.

Christoph B. Schiltz

-Analysis-

BERLIN — The war in Ukraine is likely to reach its culmination this summer, becoming even more brutal and bloody than before.

Retired Australian general Mick Ryan says Russians will intensify "killing zones" of large-scale minefields, armored trenches and "dragon's teeth" — pyramidal concrete blocks designed to slow advancing military vehicles — to target and lure in Ukrainian forces during attacks.

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The decision-making phase is imminent, according to the consensus of numerous Western diplomats.

It will last until about the end of October, depending on when the rainy season will begin, rendering the soil muddy. More importantly, it will depend on the outcome of the planned Ukrainian counteroffensive, which will determine how to proceed in the fall and winter.

"Everything hangs on this counteroffensive," says former NATO vice chief Alexander Vershbow.

Leaked Pentagon documents show that Washington does not expect a resounding success from the Ukrainians this summer. Even renowned military strategist Markus Reisner of the Defense Ministry in Austria says: "I don't currently believe in a complete collapse of Russian defenses."

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