Challenge to democratic societies

Tikhanovskaya continued to build her support, and after Lukashenko’s lopsided victory in a clearly rigged election, led demands for a new vote. But a government crackdown soon ensued, and Tikhanovskaya was eventually forced to leave Belarus — with her husband still in custody.

Fast-forward to Tuesday, with Lukashenko still firmly in control of the country, the guilty verdict against Tikhanovsky on charges of organizing riots and leading social unrest were both shocking and not surprising at all. Tikhanovsky’s associates, Artem Sakov and Dmitry Popov, received 16 years of hard time. Bloggers Vladimir Tsyganovich and Igor Losik were sentenced to 15 years in the reinforced regime colony, while politician Nikolai Statkevich got 14 years in jail.

Lukashenko is sure that he will rule forever

To be clear, Amnesty International considers Tikhanovsky a prisoner of conscience, and much of the international community has condemned the sentence. From exile in Lithuania, Svetlana Tikhanovskaya responded to her husband’s sentencing on Twitter: "The dictator publicly takes revenge on his strongest opponents. While hiding the political prisoners in closed trials, he hopes to continue repressions in silence. But the whole world watches. We won't stop."

Such trials and sentences are a clear public demonstration of Lukashenko's intentions, as well as the solidity of the Russian leadership covering his back. It is a challenge to democratic societies around the world saying: our justice system is not subject to your views on human rights.

To enter the state of mind of a strongman like Lukashenko, you must remember that he is sure that he will rule forever — every totalitarian leader is sure of his irremovability. This both permits and requires that he demonstrates brutality toward his opponents. It is the basis, explicit or otherwise, of his pact with Vladimir Putin, and a message to those abroad and at home who might challenge them.